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Unknown Legislator Could Craft Credible Statewide Campaign PDF Print E-mail
Commentary/Politics - Illinois Politics
Written by Rich Miller   
Sunday, 04 August 2013 05:23

State Senator Kwame RaoulState Senator Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) was apparently taken aback a few weeks ago when his standard public comments about not ruling out a race for governor were taken as a dramatic sign that he might very well run.

The public reaction should’ve been predictable. The most recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, taken in mid-July, had Governor Pat Quinn getting just 38 percent of the Democratic-primary vote. That’s pretty awful for an incumbent. Bill Daley, who made his exploratory candidacy official last week, was at 33 percent.

That leaves a lot of wide-open space for a new challenger. There is a very definable path for Raoul to do well here. And while he might not win, he’d likely set himself up for a future statewide race – possibly the 2016 U.S. Senate primary – if he runs a credible campaign. There really just isn’t much of a downside, so let’s look at his path.

 
Questions Swirl Around Quinn’s Legislative-Salary Veto PDF Print E-mail
Commentary/Politics - Illinois Politics
Written by Rich Miller   
Sunday, 28 July 2013 08:06

House Speaker Michael Madigan has always strongly guarded the powers of the General Assembly as a coequal branch of government, so it was a little surprising when he appeared to support Governor Pat Quinn’s line-item veto of legislative salaries in mid-July.

The governor vetoed the salaries in retaliation for the General Assembly’s failure to pass a pension-reform bill. In a press release the day of the veto, Madigan said he understood the governor’s frustration with the lack of progress, adding, “I am hopeful his strategy works.”

Behind the scenes, though, Madigan is said to be furious with the governor’s veto. Madigan’s legal staff has been meeting with other lawyers to set strategy to either get around the veto or oppose it. So far, they are not finding much in the way of non-court options.

 
Poll Shows Daley Vulnerable to Bank Attacks PDF Print E-mail
Commentary/Politics - Illinois Politics
Written by Rich Miller   
Sunday, 21 July 2013 09:59

Governor Pat Quinn is leading his sole Democratic-primary rival, and challenger Bill Daley will have some serious problems with his blue-chip résumé, according to a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll.

The poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters found Quinn leading Daley by five points, 38-33. That’s exactly where the two stood in a January poll. A June poll had Daley leading Quinn by a point, 38-37, but since then Quinn has made some popular moves, including vetoing legislative salaries out of the budget and using his veto powers to rewrite the concealed-carry bill.

The most recent poll was taken July 17, a day after Attorney General Lisa Madigan shook up the race by announcing her decision not to run for governor. It had a margin of error of 2.6 percent. Cell phones made up 28 percent of those called.

Twenty-eight percent of likely primary voters were undecided, suggesting that there is plenty of room for movement by either man and possibly an opening for someone else to enter the race.

 
Quinn Scores with His Populist Playbook PDF Print E-mail
Commentary/Politics - Illinois Politics
Written by Rich Miller   
Sunday, 14 July 2013 10:40

Years ago, Governor Pat Quinn told a friend of mine that Illinois voters were pretty easy to understand. Illinoisans love populism, Quinn explained, so doing populist stuff was the way to win their hearts.

And if a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll is correct, then Quinn has done just that with last week’s line-item veto of legislative salaries and benefits. At least, for now.

 
Gubernatorial Candidate’s Spending Pushes His Numbers PDF Print E-mail
Commentary/Politics - Illinois Politics
Written by Rich Miller   
Sunday, 30 June 2013 05:26

Back in early February, not a single person picked Bruce Rauner’s name in a Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll surveying likely Republican primary voters.

Other polls taken since then have shown retired financier Rauner in the low single digits in his bid for governor.

But Rauner has been dumping money into Downstate TV, the Fox News Channel in the Chicago area, and Chicago and Downstate radio. As a result, he appears to be moving some numbers.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken June 20 of 1,310 likely Republican gubernatorial primary voters found Rauner at 12 percent. The poll was taken almost two weeks after Rauner began running ads.

 
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