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  • "Argo" Fête Yourself: 2013 Oscar Predictions PDF Print E-mail
    Movies - Feature Stories
    Written by Mike Schulz   
    Wednesday, 13 February 2013 06:00

    Ben Affleck in ArgoAs I only predicted 15 out of 24 categories correctly for the previous Academy Awards, obviously I have some making up to do for my prognostic abilities to again be taken seriously.

    Of all freakin’ times to attempt a comeback ... !

    Seriously, this is one of those wacky, anomalous years in which nearly anything could happen at the annual Oscar ceremony. (This year’s is scheduled to air locally on ABC’s WQAD-TV affiliate on Sunday, February 24, beginning at 7 p.m.). Argo could win the big prize despite its lack of a Best Director nod, or it could be shut out entirely. (I’m guessing the former.) Lincoln could sweep, or it could be relegated to one lone win from 12 nominations. (Sadly, I’m guessing the latter.) Silver Linings Playbook could score in numerous categories because – like 2011’s The Artist and 2010’s The King’s Speech – it has producer and legendary Oscar hunter Harvey Weinstein on its side, or it ... .

    Hmm. Maybe I should’ve given the Weinstein thing more consideration before making these predictions.

    Alas, the predictions have been made, and in boldface no less, so I guess there’s no turning back now. I urge you to employ caution if you’re planning to use them for your office’s annual Oscar pool. And you may as well flip a coin on Best Supporting Actor. Preferably a five-sided coin.

     

    BEST PICTURE
    Amour
    Argo
    Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Django Unchained
    Les Misérables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    At present, Ben Affleck is so beloved in the industry that he probably could’ve directed that tacky, sci-fi script-within-the-script version of Argo and it still would’ve won Best Picture.

     

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Michael Haneke, Amour
    Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
    Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Though if, through some miracle, this award’s presenter exclaims, “And the Oscar goes to ... Ben Affleck!”, I won’t be the least bit surprised.

     

    Daniel Day-Lewis in LincolnBEST ACTOR
    Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
    Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    Denzel Washington, Flight

    Hail to the chief.

     

    BEST ACTRESS
    Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
    Naomi Watts, The Impossible

    “Gee ... Emmanuelle turns 86 on February 24 ... . We really should get her something nice this year ... .”

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Alan Arkin, Argo
    Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

    And if this happens, De Niro will have beaten Day-Lewis to a third Oscar by at least an hour. Take that, Brits! USA! USA!

     

    Anne Hathaway in Les MiserablesBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams, The Master
    Sally Field, Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
    Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

    One song plus one unbroken take equals one Oscar.

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    Amour, Michael Haneke
    Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
    Flight, John Gatins
    Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
    Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

    After big wins from Critics Choice Award (CCA), Golden Globe, and British Academy of Film & Television Arts (BAFTA) voters, Tarantino should be the no-contest choice here. But Amour’s unexpectedly powerful showing in numerous Oscar categories makes me think otherwise. Take that, Americans! Aus-tri-a! Aus-tri-a!

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Argo, Chris Terrio
    Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
    Life of Pi, David Magee
    Lincoln, Tony Kushner
    Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

    Kushner’s script, I’m convinced, is a thing of genius, and Russell, despite heavy competition, recently won the BAFTA prize in this category. But Argo is about hostages who are rescued, in part, by a screenplay titled Argo. Academy voters should just give Terrio’s script the Oscar and miniature tights and a cape.

     

    BraveBEST ANIMATED FEATURE
    Brave
    Frankenweenie
    ParaNorman
    The Pirates! Band of Misfits
    Wreck-It Ralph

    Frankenweenie would be welcome, long-delayed acknowledgment of Tim Burton, and Wreck-It Ralph would be a relatively hip option for a generally unhip Academy. ParaNorman, meanwhile, would just be my choice, so obviously that’s not gonna happen. (Nor will The Pirates!) Let's go with the Golden Globe and BAFTA winner in this category – maybe not a brave prediction, but a Brave prediction nonetheless.

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG
    “Before My Time,” Chasing Ice
    “Everybody Needs a Best Friend,” Ted
    “Pi’s Lullaby,” Life of Pi
    “Skyfall,” Skyfall
    “Suddenly,” Les Misérables

    I wonder if Adele’s new Grammy is looking for a dance partner ... ?

     

    BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
    Amour, Austria
    Kon-Tiki, Norway
    No, Chile
    A Royal Affair, Denmark
    War Witch, Canada

    “Amour” is French for “love.” What’s French for “such a done deal that there’s no point discussing it”?

     

    Searching for Sugar ManBEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    5 Broken Cameras
    The Gatekeepers
    How to Survive a Plague
    The Invisible War
    Searching for Sugar Man

    For the first time ever, I’ve seen all five nominees in this category prior to the ceremony, and am thinking my favorite will actually be the Academy’s favorite, too. Wow. Maybe that does happen on occasion.

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    Anna Karenina
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Skyfall

    Anna Karenina’s Dario Marianelli previously won for 2007’s Atonement. Lincoln’s John Williams has won, like, a million of these things. Argo’s Alexandre Desplat and Skyfall’s Thomas Newman are overdue for Oscar recognition. (The latter ridiculously so.) But thanks in large part to composer Mychael Danna, Life of Pi sounds as good as it looks, and it looks amazing.

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Anna Karenina
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Skyfall

    Have I mentioned that Life of Pi looks amazing?

     

    BEST FILM EDITING
    Argo
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Generally speaking, the Best Picture winner also wins Best Film Editing. It just didn’t last year ... or the year before that ... . Damn that boldface!

     

    Keira Knightley in Anna KareninaBEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
    Anna Karenina
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Les Misérables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln

    I should probably be going with Les Mis or Life of Pi on this – or, quite frankly, The Hobbit or Lincoln – but that theatre set that magically transformed into an entire bloody Tolstoy novel is just too jaw-dropping not to predict.

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN
    Anna Karenina
    Les Misérables
    Lincoln
    Mirror Mirror
    Snow White & the Huntsman

    Fun as it is to imagine a battle royale between dueling Snow Whites, I’m pretty certain another fictional lady has this one in the bag.

     

    BEST SOUND EDITING
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Skyfall
    Zero Dark Thirty

    A hunch based solely on the presumption that three Oscars for Argo won’t be deemed enough.

     

    BEST SOUND MIXING
    Argo
    Les Misérables
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Skyfall

    Nominated musicals almost always win this category, and will likely continue to even though I know the Les Mis songs by heart and still couldn’t comprehend all the lyrics to that opening number.

     

    Siraj Sharma in Life of PiBEST VISUAL EFFECTS
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Life of Pi
    Marvel’s The Avengers
    Prometheus
    Snow White & the Huntsman

    Tony the tiger. I mean, Oscar the tiger.

     

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
    The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    Hitchcock
    Les Misérables

    The Hobbit feels too “been there, awarded that.” Anthony Hopkins looked less like Hitch than like a marshmallow with eyes. Les Mis it is, then.

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
    Inocente
    Kings Point
    Mondays at Racine
    Open Heart
    Redemption

    Missing teens, dying seniors, cancer patients, surgery in Rwanda, America’s economic crisis ... welcome to the Acadamy Awards’ annual happy-fun-time category! What say we go with missing teens this year?

     

    BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
    Asad
    Buzkashi Boys
    Curfew
    Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
    Henry

    A hunch based solely on Curfew being the category’s one English-language nominee. Hey, if I can be lazy, Oscar voters can, too!

     

    PapermanBEST ANIMATED SHORT
    Adam & Dog
    Fresh Guacamole
    Head Over Heels
    Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
    Paperman

    Disney's charming black-and-white entry will likely take it, and Adam & Dog totally deserves it. But if, through some miracle, this award’s presenter exclaims, “And the Oscar goes to ... Ben Affleck!”, I won’t be the least bit surprised.

     

    For an analysis of the tricky Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor races, visit "Oscar-a-a-aziness."


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