Latest Comments
|
| "Locker"-ed and Loaded: 2010 Oscar Predictions |
 |
 |
 |
| Movies - Feature Stories | |||
| Written by Mike Schulz | |||
| Monday, 22 February 2010 09:19 | |||
|
Since I predicted correctly in 16 of the 24 categories last year, I've decided that, this year, I'd asterisk the eight categories I'm pretty ambivalent about. Assuming that my two-out-of-three average continues with the 2010 Oscar ceremony - being telecast on WQAD-TV, beginning at 7 p.m., on Sunday, March 7 - simply go with my un-asterisked guesses, make your own choices for the eight categories in which I'm hedging my bets, and presto! The pool prize is yours! And we're all agreed to forget about the year before last, when I only predicted 11 out of 24 correctly, right?
BEST PICTURE Avatar The Blind Side District 9 An Education The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire A Serious Man Up Up in the Air Forget Avatar - did you register the room's collective grimaces when the film won Best Picture and Director at the Golden Globes? Give passing consideration to Inglourious Basterds, especially in light of its Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award for Best Ensemble and its tireless/shameless promotion by co-executive producer Harvey Weinstein. Then mark a confident "X" on your ballot next to this already-invaluable Iraq War thriller - it'll be the right prize, at the right time, for the right movie.
BEST DIRECTOR Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker James Cameron, Avatar Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Even if The Hurt Locker somehow loses Best Picture, this category's a gimme. Prepare to watch history being made, folks.
BEST ACTOR Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart George Clooney, Up in the Air Colin Firth, A Single Man Morgan Freeman, Invictus Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker An Oscar on the mantlepiece will really tie Bridges' room together.
* BEST ACTRESS Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side Helen Mirren, The Last Station Carey Mulligan, An Education Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia This prediction pains me a little, because while numerous performers could've pulled off Leigh Anne Tuohy, I'm not sure that any other actress on earth could've delivered such a believable, endearing, joyous Julia Child. But Streep was absent for half of her film, and the half she wasn't in was routinely dismissed. And besides, Bullock's speeches have been pretty damned charming at the Critics' Choice Awards ... and the Golden Globe Awards ... and the SAG Awards ... .
Matt Damon, Invictus Woody Harrelson, The Messenger Christopher Plummer, The Last Station Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds "That's a BING-GO-O-O-O-O!!!"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Penélope Cruz, Nine Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire A win even more certain than Bigelow's. If that's possible.
* BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman, The Messenger Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, A Serious Man Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Thomas McCarthy, Up Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Over the 10 years prior to Inglourious Basterds' SAG victory, nine winners for Best Ensemble were casts from films that went on to receive Academy Awards for screenplay. (Comparatively, only seven of the last 10 Best Picture recipients won a screenplay Oscar.) I should be going with the odds here, but Boal's recent victory over Tarantino at the British Academy Awards makes me think the tide might be turning in Hurt Locker's favor. BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION Jesse Armstrong, Jesse Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, In the Loop Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9 Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Nick Hornby, An Education Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air It's really Up in the Air's only serious chance for an Oscar. Thankfully for the movie, though, that chance is, like, 99.9 percent favorable.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Coraline Fantastic Mr. Fox The Princess & the Frog The Secret of Kells Up If the award was for Best Opening 10 Minutes in an Animated Feature, I'd be totally on board with this inevitable winner. Still, Pixar's inclusion among the Best Picture nominees makes it a tough choice to deny.
Ajami, Israel The Milk of Sorrow, Peru Un Prophète, France El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina The White Ribbon, Germany
Because even though The White Ribbon is also up for Best Cinematography, which indicates wide(r) support, InContention.com's Kristopher Tapley told us to go with this one. And since he correctly predicted last year's Departures as the winner in this category - a huge surprise to the rest of us - I now do almost everything Tapley tells me to.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Burma VJ The Cove Food, Inc. The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg & the Pentagon Papers Which Way Home This investigative doc about dolphin killing is likely to make you sick to your stomach. But in a good, proactive way.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Almost There," The Princess & the Frog "Down in New Orleans," The Princess & the Frog "Loin de Paname," Paris 36 "Take It All," Nine "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart Academy Awards telecast co-producer Adam Shankman recently announced that the Best Original Song nominees would not be performed during 2010's ceremony. I'll kind of miss hearing Crazy Heart's inevitable (and quite good) winner, but I can't really argue with the logic of dumping this annually time-killing, frequently embarrassing escapade from the broadcast. Of course, I'm now wondering how I'll know when it's time to take a restroom break ... .
* BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Avatar Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds The White Ribbon Sure, Avatar looked amazing, but only about a quarter of the movie wasn't computer-generated. And besides, there's Guy Pearce's slow-motion run from the opening explosion to consider. And Jeremy Renner's unveiling of a half-dozen bombs at really close proximity. And the sunset image of Renner calling wife Evangeline Lilly. And Renner staring at the aisle of cereal boxes. And ... .
BEST FILM EDITING Avatar District 9 The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Almost as done a deal as Best Director. Hell, almost as much a done deal as Mo'Nique.
Avatar Fantastic Mr. Fox The Hurt Locker Sherlock Holmes Up An Up Oscar win I won't have any problem with. I could keep my eyes closed during the opening reel and still cry like a baby.
BEST ART DIRECTION Avatar The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus Nine Sherlock Holmes The Young Victoria It'll be made official: Pixelated art is still art.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Bright Star Coco Before Chanel The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus Nine The Young Victoria Here's something unexpected: Even with a field of 10 contenders, not one of the Best Picture nominees is up for Best Costume Design. (The last time this happened was ... . Oh ... . 2006. So maybe it shouldn't have been all that unexpected ... .) But the winners over the past three years were Marie Antoinette, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and The Duchess; is there any reason to expect this female-royal-monarch trend not to continue?
* BEST SOUND EDITING Avatar The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds Star Trek Up * BEST SOUND MIXING Avatar The Hurt Locker Inglourious Basterds Star Trek Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen I'm guessing that one of two things with happen: Either Avatar or The Hurt Locker wins both Oscars, or voters will award one to one of 'em and another to the other. Going with the second scenario, I'm predicting that Avatar wins Best Sound Editing, which is traditionally presented to loud, high-grossing movies (The Dark Knight, The Bourne Ultimatum, King Kong), and The Hurt Locker wins Best Sound Mixing, which is traditionally presented to loud, high-grossing movies, musicals, or eventual Best Picture winners, i.e. last year's Slumdog Millionaire. Hey, Bigelow's film has at least one of those qualifications, right ... ?
Avatar District 9 Star Trek In lieu of samplings from the Best Original Song nominees, here's your bathroom break.
BEST MAKEUP Il Divo Star Trek The Young Victoria And it'll only have taken 11 tries for a Star Trek movie to win an Oscar.
* BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT The Door Instead of Abracadabra Kavi Miracle Fish The New Tenants See my rationale for the Best Foreign-Language Film victor.
* BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant Music by Prudence Rabbit à la Berlin Consider it a two-decades-late acknowledgment of Roger & Me.
French Roast Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty The Lady & the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Logorama A Matter of Loaf & Death God bless YouTube, because for the first time ever, I've actually seen the five nominated animated shorts prior to the Oscar telecast. And while I enjoyed all of them - French Roast and Logorama are especially good - it'd be foolish to bet against Nick Park's Wallace & Gromit entry, because (a) it's flippin' hysterical, and (b) only one nominated Wallace & Gromit short has failed to win the Oscar in this category ... and the film it lost to was another Wallace & Gromit short. Trackback(0)
Comments (1)
 Write comment
|
Okay, yes, we've been trying this for years. But this time, I think I've finally figured out how you can score 24 out of 24 in your office's annual Academy Awards pool.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed
Tags
But other than that, HURT LOCKER all the way!