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Mike Schulz's Oscar Predictions - 2006 PDF Print E-mail
Movies - Feature Stories
Written by Mike Schulz   
Wednesday, 01 March 2006 06:00

The following are the nominees for the 2006 Academy Awards telecast, scheduled to air on ABC affiliate WQAD-TV at 7 p.m. on Sunday, March 5. (Note: Boldface denotes Mike's projected winner in each category.)

 

Best Picture

 

Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Crash

Good Night, & Good Luck.

Munich

 

Crash wouldn't surprise me; no film's selection would bother me. Yet the anticipated Brokeback-lash never happened, and the film is the biggest box-office hit among the nominees here, which never hurts a film's Best Picture odds. It also happens to deserve the prize. That doesn't hurt, either.

 

 

Best Director

 

George Clooney, Good Night, & Good Luck.

Paul Haggis, Crash

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain

Bennett Miller, Capote

Steven Spielberg, Munich

 

A lock. Bet the mortgage. Bet the children.

 

 

Best Actress

 

Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Felicity Huffman, Transamerica

Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice

Charlize Theron, North Country

Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

 

Bet the neighbors' children.

 

 

Best Actor

 

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote

Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain

Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

David Strathairn, Good Night, & Good Luck.

 

Ledger could sneak a win, and it would be a deserved one, but Truman Capote is the role of Hoffman's life, and everyone seems to know it.

 

 

Best Supporting Actress

 

Amy Adams, Junebug

Catherine Keener, Capote

Frances McDormand, North Country

Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener

Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

 

And at your Oscar party, you are allowed to slug anyone who starts singing the victor's name to the tune of "Edelweis."

 

 

Best Supporting Actor

 

George Clooney, Syriana

Matt Dillon, Crash

Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man

Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain

William Hurt, A History of Violence

 

Because it's a serious field of Oscar contenders, and we're gonna need a funny speech. Of course, Giamatti's would be pretty amusing, too... .

 

 

Best Original Screenplay

 

Crash, Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco

Good Night, & Good Luck., George Clooney & Grant Heslov

Match Point, Woody Allen

The Squid & the Whale, Noah Baumbach

Syriana, Steven Gaghan

 

Ah, the screenplay categories, where the year's second-best pictures - and often more deserving ones - finally get some love. (Think Sideways, Lost in Translation, Traffic, L.A. Confidential, Fargo, Pulp Fiction, The Piano... need I continue?) So it's Crash vs. Good Luck for this prize, and Haggis (who wrote last year's Million Dollar Baby yet did not receive a Best Screenplay Oscar) and Moresco look pretty unstoppable.

 

 

Best Screenplay Adaptation

 

Brokeback Mountain, Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana

Capote, Dan Futterman

The Constant Gardener, Jeffrey Caine

A History of Violence, Josh Olson

Munich, Tony Kushner & Eric Roth

 

If McMurtry and Ossana don't win this, all bets are off for the rest of the night.

 

 

Best Foreign Language Film

 

Don't Tell, Italy

Joyeux Noel, France

Paradise Now, Palestine

Sophie Scholl - The Final Days, Germany

Tsotsi, South Africa

 

I haven't seen any of them, so what the hell do I know? Only that the Paradise Now reviews are great. And the film won this category at the Golden Globes. And the subject matter is timely. And Palestine has never had a film nominated in this category before, which seems like a slight. Well, look at that. I guess I do know some stuff... .

 

 

Best Animated Feature

 

Howl's Moving Castle

Tim Burton's Corpse Bride

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

 

Say, "Cheeeeeeeeese!"

 

 

Best Cinematography

 

Batman Begins, Wally Pfister

Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto

Good Night, & Good Luck., Robert Elswit

Memoirs of a Geisha, Dion Beebe

The New World, Emmanuel Lubezki

 

I feel really unsure about this one, but we don't have a Braveheart-y, Titanic-y epic in the race this time, and those Wyoming landscapes are gorgeous; if you can't vote with Scale in this category, always vote with Pretty.

 

 

Best Original Score

 

Brokeback Mountain, Gustavo Santaolalla

The Constant Gardener, Alberto Iglesias

Memoirs of a Geisha, John Williams

Munich, John Williams

Pride & Prejudice, Dario Marianelli

 

Again, I'm probably going with my heart over my head on this one; the safe money is on Iglesias for Gardener or Williams for Memoirs. But in an unusually subtle race this year - and that's with two John Williams entries! - I'll again back Brokeback, as Santaolalla's plaintive guitar chords linger in the memory nearly as much as Lee's images do.

 

 

Best Original Song

 

Crash, "In the Deep," by Kathleen "Bird" York & Michael Becker

Hustle & Flow, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, and Paul Beauregard

Transamerica, "Travelin' Thru," by Dolly Parton

 

I bet Dolly's speech would be almost as entertaining as Clooney's inevitably will be, but "In the Deep" had true contextual impact, and I'm guessing voters - leaning toward Brokeback in the Picture and Director categories - will also want to load Crash up with as many other Oscars as they can.

 

 

Best Film Editing

 

Cinderella Man

The Constant Gardener

Crash

Munich

Walk the Line

 

Case in point.

 

 

Best Documentary Feature

 

Darwin's Nightmare

Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room

March of the Penguins

Murderball

Street Fight

 

And you thought Reese would be the night's cutest winner.

 

 

Best Art Direction

 

Good Night, & Good Luck.

Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire

King Kong

Memoirs of a Geisha

Pride & Prejudice

 

I hate Memoirs of a Geisha. Freakin' hate it. It's destined to win something.

 

 

Best Costume Design

 

Charlie & the Chocolate Factory

Memoirs of a Geisha

Mrs. Henderson Presents

Pride & Prejudice

Walk the Line

 

I'm afraid it's gonna win this one, too. Sari.

 

 

Best Make-Up

 

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, & the Wardrobe

Cinderella Man

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

 

Did you know this was the first of the six Star Wars films where the visual effects weren't cited? I'm predicting a consolation win in this category instead, but still... ouch. The movie wasn't that bad... .

 

 

Best Visual Effects

 

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, & the Wardrobe

King Kong

War of the Worlds

 

... and considering they found room for the shaky Narnia effects... . Of the three choices here, I'm actually rooting for the War of the Worlds guys, but until human actors start performing with the wit and realism of Peter Jackson's CGI creations, his movies will always reign in this category.

 

 

Best Sound Mixing

 

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, & the Wardrobe

King Kong

Memoirs of a Geisha

Walk the Line

War of the Worlds

 

The other nominees are certainly louder, but Chicago won this, and Ray won this, so I'm guessing that musicals have an edge here.

 

 

Best Sound Editing

 

King Kong

Memoirs of a Geisha

War of the Worlds

 

Flip a coin. I mean, flip a weird, three-sided coin. Mine came up War of the Worlds.

 

 

Best Documentary Short Subject

 

The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club

God Sleeps in Rwanda

The Mushroom Club

A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin

 

Cue the really depressing Oscar speech.

 

 

Best Live Action Short Film

 

Ausreisser (The Runaway)

Cashback

The Last Farm

Our Time Is Up

Six Shooter

 

To the eventual winner in this category: Congratulations, but after I hear your name announced, I won't be listening to your speech. I will be refreshing my drink. Nothing personal.

 

 

Best Animated Short Film

 

Badgered

The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation

The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello

9

One Man Band

 

"Mike, are you still at the bar... ?"

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