| You Are Their "Sunshine": 2007 Oscar Predictions |
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| Movies - Feature Stories | |||
| Written by Mike Schulz | |||
| Wednesday, 21 February 2007 02:36 | |||
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And if you're planning to use my predictions to win your office Oscar pool, know that last year I only guessed correctly in 15 of the 24 categories, so I don't wanna hear any bitching if my prognosticating leads to your embarrassment. This means you, Mom. Boldface denotes my predictions.
BEST PICTURE Babel The Departed Letters from Iwo Jima Little Miss Sunshine The Queen
Because, for the love of God, nothing seems to be stopping it. And if I do predict Little Miss Sunshine, then maybe The Departed actually has a chance. (I've guessed wrong in this category three out of the past five years. Here's hoping it's four out of six.)
BEST DIRECTOR Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima Stephen Frears, The Queen Paul Greengrass, United 93 Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel Martin Scorsese, The Departed
And after typing that, I threw salt over my shoulder, knocked wood, and spun around three times. You know. Just in case.
BEST ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson Peter O'Toole, Venus Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
After seven losses, only a performance as universally revered as Whitaker's could prevent an O'Toole victory. And will.
BEST ACTRESS Penélope Cruz, Volver Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal Helen Mirren, The Queen Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada Kate Winslet, Little Children
Perhaps the biggest Done Deal in Academy Awards history. You are allowed to bet your kids' college funds. You are allowed to bet your kids.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
If there's gonna be a surprise in the acting categories, it's gonna be here, and it's gonna be Arkin. But with great uncertainty, I'm sticking with Murphy: He's won all the important, pre-Oscar trophies (the Golden Globe, the SAG Award, the Broadcast Film Critics' award), he's made billions for Hollywood over the years, and -seriously - if not now, when?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Adriana Barraza, Babel Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Clay Aiken's agent is ecstatic.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan Children of Men The Departed Little Children Notes on a Scandal
For burgeoning screenwriters, Children of Men could be a master class on structure and dramatic economy, not to mention the exquisite use of silence. But for exquisite banter, nothing this year tops The Departed. (And, for the record, its structure and dramatic economy are nothing to sniff at.) A Scorsese film, by the way, has never won in this category, either. Can the madness please end this year?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Babel Letters from Iwo Jima Little Miss Sunshine Pan's Labyrinth The Queen
For my money, the screenplay is the weakest thing about it, but Little Miss Sunshine has to win something besides Best Picture. Uh ... right?
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM After the Wedding, Denmark Days of Glory, Algeria The Lives of Others, Germany Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico Water, Canada
The Lives of Others is developing enormous buzz, but it's hard to imagine any film triumphing over Guillermo del Toro's breathtaking faun-tasy.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Deliver Us from Evil, directed by Amy Berg & Frank Donner An Inconvenient Truth, directed by Davis Guggenheim Iraq in Fragments, directed by James Longley & John Sinno Jesus Camp, directed by Heidi Ewing & Rachel Grady My Country, My Country, directed by Laura Poitras & Jocelyn Glatzer
And voters will instantly feel less guilty about driving home in their SUVs.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Cars, directed by John Lasseter Happy Feet, directed by George Miller Monster House, directed by Gil Kenan
An Inconvenient Truth for the tap-dancing-penguin set.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Black Dahlia Children of Men The Illusionist Pan's Labyrinth The Prestige
You may notice no Best Picture nominees in this lineup. Wanna know the last time that happened? When the very first Oscar nominations were announced, back in 1929. (I told you it was a weird year.) Pan's Labyrinth could easily dominate its tech categories, but for that astonishing, climactic battle scene alone, I'm pulling for a Children of Men win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Babel, Gustavo Santaolalla The Good German, Thomas Newman Notes on a Scandal, Philip Glass Pan's Labyrinth, Javier Navarette The Queen, Alexandre Desplat
What?! No John Williams?! Heresy! (And, I must say, relief.) If Santaolalla hadn't just won last year, I'd go with his memorable Babel strumming. Instead, I'm predicting that Desplat will be rewarded for his 2006 two-fer, as he also composed the music - and won the Golden Globe - for The Painted Veil.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG "I Need to Wake Up," An Inconvenient Truth; music and lyrics by Melissa Etheridge "Listen," Dreamgirls; music by Henry Krieger & Scott Cutler; lyrics by Anne Preven "Love You I Do," Dreamgirls; music by Henry Krieger; lyrics by Siedah Garrett "Our Town," Cars; music and lyrics by Randy Newman "Patience," Dreamgirls; music by Henry Krieger; lyrics by Willie Reale
Because this category has become increasingly impossible to predict - Eminem? Three 6 Mafia? - and because Oscar host Ellen Degeneres just might have a funny response to Etheridge's victory. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
BEST FILM EDITING Babel Blood Diamond Children of Men The Departed United 93
United 93 or Children of Men deserves the win here, but if Babel is about anything - and I'm not entirely convinced that it is - it's editing.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest Poseidon Superman Returns
Poor Bill Nighy. He finally winds up in a blockbuster and you can't freakin' see him.
BEST SOUND EDITING Apocalypto Blood Diamond Flags of Our Fathers Letters from Iwo Jima Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
BEST SOUND MIXING Apocalypto Blood Diamond Dreamgirls Flags of Our Fathers Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
To be honest, I don't really understand the difference between these categories, but I'm assuming that a majority of voters don't, either. Consider this the best way for the Academy to recognize both of Clint's achievements. (Sound Editing is also Letters' best shot at an Oscar.) Message to Kevin O'Connell, nominated for Apocalypto's Sound Mixing: The 20th time has to be the charm, right?
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Curse of the Golden Flower The Devil Wears Prada Dreamgirls Marie Antoinette The Queen
Question for discussion: Did you, or did you not, find the film's exquisite period design thrown out of whack with the appearance of the Chuck Taylors? Converse.
BEST ART DIRECTION Dreamgirls The Good Shepherd Pan's Labyrinth Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest The Prestige
As with Best Cinematography, there are no Best Picture nominees in this category, either, which hasn't happened since 1945, when the category was still called Best Interior Decoration. (I have friends who would kill for that honor.) And this year, no interiors were more imaginatively decorated than Eugene Caballero's and Pilar Revuelta's.
BEST MAKEUP Apocalypto Click Pan's Labyrinth
The eyes have it.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT The Blood of Yingzhou District Recycled Life Rehearsing a Dream Two Hands
The Blood of Yingzhou District (about the plight of a Chinese orphan with AIDS) and Recycled Life (about Guatemalans who make their living by rummaging through trash) sound unbearably depressing - I'd probably love them - and Rehearsing a Dream, which concerns high-schoolers in the performing arts, doesn't sound depressing enough. I'm opting for Two Hands, the inspiring tale of pianist Leon Fleisher, who triumphed over a mysterious ailment that caused him to lose the use of his right hand. Daniel Day-Lewis and Geoffrey Rush are probably battling one another for the feature-film rights.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM Binta & the Great Idea One Too Many Helmer & Son The Saviour West Bank Story
According to (http://www.oscar.com), West Bank Story is "a musical-comedy set in the fast-paced, fast-food world of competing falafel stands." Like Dreamgirls, but, you know ... breaded.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM The Danish Poet Lifted The Little Matchgirl Maestro No Time for Nuts
With no go-with-the-funniest-title choice this year (unless you're the sort who reflexively giggles at the word "nuts" ... hee hee ... ), instead go with the funniest storyline: Lifted concerns an alien abductor who has enormous difficulty navigating a sleeping farmer onto his spaceship. Oscar mumber eight for Gary Rydstrom! And Kevin O'Connell is pissed.
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