Okay, yes, we've been trying this for years. But this time, I think I've finally figured out how you can score 24 out of 24 in your office's annual Academy Awards pool.
Since I predicted correctly in 16 of the 24 categories last year, I've decided that, this year, I'd asterisk the eight categories I'm pretty ambivalent about. Assuming that my two-out-of-three average continues with the 2010 Oscar ceremony - being telecast on WQAD-TV, beginning at 7 p.m., on Sunday, March 7 - simply go with my un-asterisked guesses, make your own choices for the eight categories in which I'm hedging my bets, and presto! The pool prize is yours!
And we're all agreed to forget about the year before last, when I only predicted 11 out of 24 correctly, right?
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Forget Avatar - did you register the room's collective grimaces when the film won Best Picture and Director at the Golden Globes? Give passing consideration to Inglourious Basterds, especially in light of its Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award for Best Ensemble and its tireless/shameless promotion by co-executive producer Harvey Weinstein. Then mark a confident "X" on your ballot next to this already-invaluable Iraq War thriller - it'll be the right prize, at the right time, for the right movie.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Even if The Hurt Locker somehow loses Best Picture, this category's a gimme. Prepare to watch history being made, folks.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
An Oscar on the mantlepiece will really tie Bridges' room together.
* BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
This prediction pains me a little, because while numerous performers could've pulled off Leigh Anne Tuohy, I'm not sure that any other actress on earth could've delivered such a believable, endearing, joyous Julia Child. But Streep was absent for half of her film, and the half she wasn't in was routinely dismissed. And besides, Bullock's speeches have been pretty damned charming at the Critics' Choice Awards ... and the Golden Globe Awards ... and the SAG Awards ... .
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
"That's a BING-GO-O-O-O-O!!!"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A win even more certain than Bigelow's. If that's possible.
* BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Thomas McCarthy, Up
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Over the 10 years prior to Inglourious Basterds' SAG victory, nine winners for Best Ensemble were casts from films that went on to receive Academy Awards for screenplay. (Comparatively, only seven of the last 10 Best Picture recipients won a screenplay Oscar.) I should be going with the odds here, but Boal's recent victory over Tarantino at the British Academy Awards makes me think the tide might be turning in Hurt Locker's favor.
BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION
Jesse Armstrong, Jesse Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, In the Loop
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
It's really Up in the Air's only serious chance for an Oscar. Thankfully for the movie, though, that chance is, like, 99.9 percent favorable.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess & the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up
If the award was for Best Opening 10 Minutes in an Animated Feature, I'd be totally on board with this inevitable winner. Still, Pixar's inclusion among the Best Picture nominees makes it a tough choice to deny.
* BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami, Israel
The Milk of Sorrow, Peru
Un Prophète, France
El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina
The White Ribbon, Germany
Because even though The White Ribbon is also up for Best Cinematography, which indicates wide(r) support, InContention.com's Kristopher Tapley told us to go with this one. And since he correctly predicted last year's Departures as the winner in this category - a huge surprise to the rest of us - I now do almost everything Tapley tells me to.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg & the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home
This investigative doc about dolphin killing is likely to make you sick to your stomach. But in a good, proactive way.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Almost There," The Princess & the Frog
"Down in New Orleans," The Princess & the Frog
"Loin de Paname," Paris 36
"Take It All," Nine
"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Academy Awards telecast co-producer Adam Shankman recently announced that the Best Original Song nominees would not be performed during 2010's ceremony. I'll kind of miss hearing Crazy Heart's inevitable (and quite good) winner, but I can't really argue with the logic of dumping this annually time-killing, frequently embarrassing escapade from the broadcast. Of course, I'm now wondering how I'll know when it's time to take a restroom break ... .
* BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar
Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon
Sure, Avatar looked amazing, but only about a quarter of the movie wasn't computer-generated. And besides, there's Guy Pearce's slow-motion run from the opening explosion to consider. And Jeremy Renner's unveiling of a half-dozen bombs at really close proximity. And the sunset image of Renner calling wife Evangeline Lilly. And Renner staring at the aisle of cereal boxes. And ... .
BEST FILM EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Almost as done a deal as Best Director. Hell, almost as much a done deal as Mo'Nique.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up
An Up Oscar win I won't have any problem with. I could keep my eyes closed during the opening reel and still cry like a baby.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria
It'll be made official: Pixelated art is still art.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria
Here's something unexpected: Even with a field of 10 contenders, not one of the Best Picture nominees is up for Best Costume Design. (The last time this happened was ... . Oh ... . 2006. So maybe it shouldn't have been all that unexpected ... .) But the winners over the past three years were Marie Antoinette, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and The Duchess; is there any reason to expect this female-royal-monarch trend not to continue?
* BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up
* BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
I'm guessing that one of two things with happen: Either Avatar or The Hurt Locker wins both Oscars, or voters will award one to one of 'em and another to the other. Going with the second scenario, I'm predicting that Avatar wins Best Sound Editing, which is traditionally presented to loud, high-grossing movies (The Dark Knight, The Bourne Ultimatum, King Kong), and The Hurt Locker wins Best Sound Mixing, which is traditionally presented to loud, high-grossing movies, musicals, or eventual Best Picture winners, i.e. last year's Slumdog Millionaire. Hey, Bigelow's film has at least one of those qualifications, right ... ?
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
In lieu of samplings from the Best Original Song nominees, here's your bathroom break.
BEST MAKEUP
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria
And it'll only have taken 11 tries for a Star Trek movie to win an Oscar.
* BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants
See my rationale for the Best Foreign-Language Film victor.
* BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit àla Berlin
Consider it a two-decades-late acknowledgment of Roger & Me.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady & the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf & Death
God bless YouTube, because for the first time ever, I've actually seen the five nominated animated shorts prior to the Oscar telecast. And while I enjoyed all of them - French Roast and Logorama are especially good - it'd be foolish to bet against Nick Park's Wallace & Gromit entry, because (a) it's flippin' hysterical, and (b) only one nominated Wallace & Gromit short has failed to win the Oscar in this category ... and the film it lost to was another Wallace & Gromit short.
