The absurd facade of this long-running state-government impasse might best be summed up with two brief statements.
(1) Governor Bruce Rauner to Democrats: Just support my plans to eviscerate organized labor and I'll give you the rare privilege of voting to raise everybody's income taxes.
(2) Democrats to Rauner: Just accept our piddly little workers' compensation reforms and we'll let you put all Republican legislators on an income-tax-hike bill, which you can then, of course, gleefully sign into law.
Those two statements bring to mind a long-ago description of the play Waiting for Godot. It was, the reviewer wrote, a play in which "nothing happens, twice."
Ain't that the truth. Neither of these things will ever happen.
I have heard some portray this standoff as something like a religious war, in which each side is so wedded to their own core belief structures - particularly when it comes to labor unions (Rauner against, Democrats for) - that all rapprochement is impossible.
But as hard-line as the summer has most certainly appeared, I am increasingly convinced that this overtime session isn't quite as simple as either of those comparisons.
For instance, Rauner talks a good game, but he often backs off. He repeatedly threatened to shut down the government during last year's campaign, but he has instead done everything possible to avoid a shutdown after vetoing most of the budget in June.
The governor has railed against unions but negotiated a state contract with the Teamsters, which even includes collecting "fair share" fees that he believes are unconstitutional. He has made innumerable cuts that were quickly restored, whether through executive fiat, legislation he supports, or court cases he backs.
House Speaker Michael Madigan likewise talks a very good game about "protecting the middle class," but he hasn't always been a white knight for his core constituency groups. He flipped on his much-favored trial lawyers and rammed through medical-malpractice-lawsuit reforms last decade, for instance.
The speaker made a deal that undercut trade unions at McCormick Place, when asked to by Chicago's mayor. He muscled through a Tier 2 pension plan for state workers and teachers. That resulted in the unions' boycott of Madigan in the 2010 campaign - which then led to the 2011 legislative education reforms (also pushed by the Chicago mayor and people such as Bruce Rauner) aimed mostly at teachers and their unions, along with legislation to cut back the number of state workers represented by AFSCME and a second batch of pension reform.
To me, the key here is Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. If he really is privately asking for some legislative limits on teacher-union collective-bargaining powers - as the governor has been telling reporters and anyone else who will listen - then you can expect the speaker and the Senate president will eventually go along.
Why would they go along? That's what Democratic leaders from Chicago usually do when their mayor needs them. Not every time, but it's a pretty safe bet.
And because Emanuel has not as of this writing actually denied the governor's claim about what he really wants, I'm guessing the governor is probably telling the truth - or at least a version close enough to reality to finally smoke out the mayor and have him prod his two leaders to start moving on a resolution that can be applied statewide. As you know, the governor refuses to even talk about a budget until he gets some of his "Turnaround Agenda" passed, and keeping the teacher unions in check could go a long way toward that goal.
Until then, I think the Democratic leadership is content to continue its slow walk to oblivion and watch the governor's poll numbers move inexorably down, while galvanizing organized labor behind the Democratic Party like never before.
And as long as Rauner can keep most of government functioning, I don't think he's prepared to make any major deals, either.
So the Democrats and the mayor and the governor could all choose to wait until the stuff really hits the fan later this month and into next month, when state government's rapidly deteriorating condition could very well excuse an ugly deal in the minds of their respective constituencies.
Or they could just stick their necks out, act like statesmen, and hammer out a compromise before the pain really begins.
Nah.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
