It's been assumed all along that Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan's proposal to spend $100 million to help build Barack Obama's presidential library was designed to put the Republicans on the spot and perhaps provoke an over-the-top or maybe even racial response, which would help gin up Democratic turnout a bit this November.

Obama has put the library's location out to bid, so Madigan's proposal is ostensibly meant to help Chicago attract what will likely be a pretty big tourist destination.

But politics is just about everything in Springfield these days. Democrats are hoping to crowd the November ballot with enough measures to excite their party base and get them out to vote. A constitutional amendment to forbid any voter discrimination along racial, ethnic, gender, etc. grounds was already approved for the ballot. A non-binding referendum on whether voters want to increase the minimum wage to $10 an hour is being prepared.

So this was mainly seen as another ploy to fire up the base.

I commissioned a We Ask America poll on April 21 of the races for Illinois governor, comptroller, and treasurer. But I forgot to put the candidates' party labels in the poll's questions. The results came out very weird.

Bruce Rauner led Governor Pat Quinn 49-38 in that poll. Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka trounced Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon by an astounding 56-29 margin. And Representative Tom Cross led Senator Mike Frerichs in the state treasurer's race 33-20.

The Topinka crosstabs were bizarre. The Republican was leading among Democrats 55-30, ahead in Chicago 57-23, and among African Americans 55-22. No way.

Garbage in, garbage out, as they say, so I dumped the poll and ran a new one on April 27. This time we identified the candidates' party affiliations.

The results were strikingly different.

(Listen to author Jeff Ignatius discuss the Fair Tax on "Midwest Week" with WVIK's Herb Trix.)

Illustration by Leo Kelly

How would you like a cut in your income taxes while protecting funding for education and public safety?

Or how would you like the Illinois General Assembly to stick it to you by making permanent the income-tax increase of 2011 that is supposed to (mostly) expire next year?

Lucky you: In a bizarre set of circumstances, a "Fair Tax" proposal would give you both! Ninety-four percent of Illinois taxpayers would see their income taxes drop in 2015, while lawmakers wouldn't have to make the tough budgetary choices they promised to. Win-win!

Sound confusing? It is. Sound impossible? It isn't.

Bear with me, and I'll explain how the legislature - specifically Democrats faced with two highly unattractive options in an election year - devised a "third way" that's not really a third way at all. It's merely a variation on one of those highly unattractive options, but it's been cleverly packaged on the assumption that voters have short memories.

This gambit is technically still in play, but on Tuesday it looked nearly certain that it lacked the legislative votes to move forward to a November referendum. If it has indeed died for 2014, let this be a cautionary tale about the perils of broken pledges - and attempts at marketing them as something positive.

And if the plan finds new life in the next few days, it's essential that lawmakers and voters understand what it really is.

Out of power for a dozen years and hobbled even before that by anti-patronage court rulings, Illinois' Republican-party infrastructure has all but collapsed.

So part of GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner's task is to try to somehow rebuild a grassroots infrastructure.

It won't be an easy job. Republicans have never, in the modern age, been able to match the Democrats' ability to dispatch patronage armies to the state's distant corners because of the Democrats' Chicago and Cook County patronage bases. The Republicans' local organizations are essentially hollow these days, and they have no troops to speak of.

Before the primary, Rauner's campaign had ambitious hopes of opening as many as 50 field offices throughout Illinois. Those plans were scaled back as reality sank in. Finding enough experienced people to staff those offices would be next to impossible.

A poll taken for Rasmussen Reports earlier this month found that Governor Pat Quinn's unfavorable rating was 55 percent.

That's pretty darned bad, and perhaps the worst among the nation's governors. But Quinn has nothing on Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan.

A new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found Madigan's unfavorable rating to be an almost mind-boggling 65 percent.

A long time ago I asked Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan why he never golfed at his golf-outing fundraisers.

Madigan explained that he was a terrible golfer. (He's since improved, I'm told.) If people saw him embarrassing himself on the golf course, they might take a dimmer view of him as a leader.

He has applied this lesson to just about everything he does. He examines every angle before he acts. He hates mistakes and almost never acts impetuously.

For example, Madigan and his staff gather a few times a week to read through every bill and every amendment to those bills to look for flaws and hidden agendas or to discuss strategies. He always wants to be as prepared as possible.

As a result, he rarely fails.

But something else has been happening over the past year or so.

Madigan has become a media hound.

Two worries are obviously driving driving much of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan's personal legislative agenda this year: low Democratic turnout in an off-year election for an unpopular governor and Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner's millions in campaign spending.

"If you're an African American on the South Side, what motivates you to vote for [Governor] Pat Quinn when you wake up election morning?" was the blunt assessment of one longtime Madigan associate last week.

For example, Madigan signaled last week that despite his past reluctance to raise the minimum wage and his longtime alliance with the Illinois Retail Merchants Association (which is leading the charge against it), he's not opposed. Calling the idea a matter of "fairness" and "equity," Madigan told reporters last week: "I think you'll find the opposition to raising the minimum wage comes from people that have done pretty well in America, and for some strange reason they don't want others in America to participate in prosperity."

Asked if he was referring to Rauner, Madigan asked: "Who?"

It turns out that Governor Pat Quinn and the two Democratic legislative leaders met privately for at least several days to negotiate details of the governor's budget address.

The highly unusual move means that most if not all aspects of Quinn's budget proposals last week have already been agreed to by the Democrats who run the Illinois Statehouse.

House Speaker Michael Madigan tipped his hand after the governor's address during Jak Tichenor's invaluable Illinois Lawmakers public-television program when he twice insisted that the governor's property-tax proposal was actually his idea.

The governor proposed eliminating the state's property-tax credit, which is currently worth 5 percent of property taxes paid, and replacing it with an automatic $500 tax refund.

That idea was apparently just one of Madigan's demands in exchange for supporting the governor's proposal to make the "temporary" income-tax hike permanent, which was the centerpiece of Quinn's speech.

It didn't take long for Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner to drop the word "unions" from his vocabulary.

After bashing public-employee-union leaders for months as corrupt bosses who buy votes to control Springfield, Rauner and his campaign have assiduously avoided the use of the U word since his victory last Tuesday. Instead, he's switched to a line about how "our government is run by lobbyists, for special interests, and the career politicians in both parties let it happen."

Rauner's campaign manager said on primary night that his boss is "pro-union." Rauner himself insisted last week that he's not anti-union and never has been.

The candidate's record clearly shows otherwise, however. Rauner kicked off his campaign with a widely published op-ed in which he called for legislation to allow individual counties to approve their own "right to work" laws. Rauner has also repeatedly demanded that Illinois follow the lead of states such as Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin, all of which have all passed anti-union laws.

Way back in 1992, I did a story about Dan Rutherford's first run for the Illinois House of Representatives.

The House Democrats back then were quietly spreading rumors about Rutherford's private life, hoping that his conservative, rural district would refuse to support someone who they said seemed to be gay. It was a classic "barber shop" play: Go where people hang out and start spreading a rumor. Spread that rumor in enough places and lots of folks will hear it and spread it themselves.

I wrote all those years ago that the Democrats were deluding themselves. Those voters weren't just conservatives; they were dyed-in-the-wool Republicans. They'd take a Republican over a Democrat any day of the week, pretty much no matter what the grapevine was saying. All the Democrats were doing was embarrassing themselves, I wrote, and they ought to cut it out. Rutherford won, of course. The Democrats' tactic failed.

I remembered that story when the Sun-Times and the Tribune started publishing "exposés" about how gubernatorial candidate and state Treasurer Rutherford had a habit of staying in the same hotel room or apartment with his male travel aide on some government and political trips. These stories served little purpose outside of trying to gin up that very same rumor mill about the candidate. The pieces were almost adolescently prurient in nature.

As with the Democrats 22 years ago, the newspapers never should've done that and should've instead risen above such nonsense.

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