25 Oct 2015

Governor's Strategy Finally Seems to Be Backfiring

By Rich Miller

Governor Bruce Rauner took it on the chin for several days in a row this month.

The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute's recent poll of southern Illinoisans showed Rauner's approval rating absolutely tanking in a region he swept last year. Just 37 percent of voters in 18 southern counties approved of his job performance, while 51 percent disapproved. The media usually reacts negatively when there's real blood in the water, and that poll most definitely showed blood.

In both a Chicago speech and during a follow-up interview, former Republican Governor Jim Edgar called on Rauner to stop holding the budget "hostage" to his anti-union Turnaround Agenda demands, claiming the lack of a state budget is hurting Illinois. Edgar remains a popular figure with political reporters, and his statements were a cold bucket of water on the governor's "things are going great, and if they're not, it's all because of House Speaker Michael Madigan" mantra.

18 Oct 2015

Thompson Center Sale Just One More Sideshow

By Rich Miller

Last week, Governor Bruce Rauner said that he had spoken with both Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan about his proposed sale of the state's Thompson Center building in Chicago, and that both men were "forward leaning and positive" about the plan.

So I checked in with the legislative leaders, and that's not exactly what I heard.

"The governor and President Cullerton spoke," said the Senate President's spokesperson Rikeesha Phelon. Okay, so far so good. At least these weren't "phantom" phone conversations like the ones Governor-elect Rauner claimed he had with those two on election night last November, but didn't.

"We will take a look at the specifics of the plan in light of state statutes regarding property control and facility closures," Phelon continued.

Um, wait. That doesn't sound all too "forward leaning and positive." I asked Phelon: Is Cullerton positive about this at all?

"I would say the word is 'open,' but under review," she replied.

11 Oct 2015

What We Have Here Is a Failure to Negotiate

By Rich Miller

Last year, gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner pledged to "crack down on waste" in government in order to save taxpayers over $140 million. He also vowed to cut $500 million from the Illinois Department of Central Management Services and find another $250 million in Medicaid savings.

Very little of that has happened to date, as the governor himself inadvertently admitted during a speech last week in the southern Cook County suburbs.

Instead of saving $500 million at CMS, for example, Rauner touted just $15 million in savings, mainly from grounding the state's fleet of airplanes - although that doesn't take into consideration the cost of paying mileage reimbursements for all those folks who can no longer fly.

The governor identified a grand total of $107 million in what he said are savings he's found this year, but most came from cuts at the Department of Healthcare and Family Services, and people I've talked to aren't buying those numbers because some major state cost controls have been allowed to expire. He also failed to mention that he vetoed a bill that the Democrats say would've resulted in $400 million in DHFS savings - far more than his own stated campaign goal and lots more than the $70 million he claims to have actually saved.

Governor Rauner also bemoaned the lack of a budget and the myriad court orders which are forcing state spending at last fiscal year's levels. "I can't control" the court orders, the governor said. That's true, but the governor could try negotiating with the stakeholders and the courts to come up with more affordable orders. He's not a complete victim.

And, of course, he repeatedly complained that the Democratic General Assembly hasn't allowed votes on a single one of his Turnaround Agenda items.

He has a right to complain, but he's not a legislator and needs to eventually realize that he can't pass bills on his own.

04 Oct 2015

Delayed Session Illustrates Do-Nothing Status Quo

By Rich Miller

The Illinois Senate had been scheduled to return to Springfield on October 6 after not being in session since September 9. But last week, the Senate President postponed session until October 20.

The reason is pretty straightforward.

The Senate has overridden several gubernatorial vetoes. It's pretty easy for the majority party because the chamber has 39 Democrats, three more than the three-fifths required to override a veto.

The House has 71 Democrats, the exact number of votes required to overturn a veto in that chamber. So the Senate Democrats can be missing a few people or have some folks who don't want to go along and still override the governor on partisan votes. But the House Democrats need every member in town, and they all need to be voting the same way for that chamber to succeed.

Because of that tight margin, and because the Republicans have marched in lockstep with their party's governor, the House has only overridden one veto this entire year: the Heroin Crisis Act.

And the House was only able to override that bill because Governor Bruce Rauner allowed House Republicans to vote against his amendatory veto, which stripped out state Medicaid funding for heroin-addiction treatment. Rauner now gets to portray himself as fiscally conservative, while the Republicans got to do the right thing and make the much-needed criminal-justice-reform legislation an actual law.

To date, the governor and his staff have successfully fought off 62 override attempts, mainly in the House.

So much for Speaker Michael Madigan's much-vaunted veto-proof House majority.

27 Sep 2015

Survey, Speech Make Negotiations Harder

By Rich Miller

A poll and a speech might have hardened positions even further on both sides of the highly partisan and bitter state-government impasse.

The speech, by Chicago Archbishop Blase Cupich, you likely already know about. The survey, taken by Governor Bruce Rauner's pollster, you probably don't. So let's start with the poll.

Basswood Research, which has done extensive work for the Rauner campaign, surveyed 800 likely Illinois general-election voters September 14 and 15 and found quite a bit of support for Rauner and a whole lot of opposition to House Speaker Michael Madigan.

The poll, which had a margin of error of 3.5 percent, found that 45.5 percent approve of Rauner's job performance, while 40 percent disapprove and 14 percent don't know. Not great.

But a whopping 71 percent agreed with the statement "Bruce Rauner is trying to shake things up in Springfield, but the career politicians are standing in his way," while just 21 percent said that wasn't true.

13 Sep 2015

Cycle of Futility Continues with State Budget

By Rich Miller

Illinois Comptroller Leslie Munger said last week that state government's backlog of unpaid bills will hit $8.5 billion by the end of December, up from about $6 billion right now.

That's a headline-grabbing number, since the end of December is not exactly the greatest time for people and companies that are owed money by the state. The state's bill backlog was about $8 billion this past January, right after most of the 2011 state-income-tax hike expired. But the backlog fell to $3.5 billion by the end of July, and just $2.3 billion of those bills were more than 30 days overdue.

But let's take a look at another estimate Comptroller Munger released last week. The comptroller totaled state spending from last fiscal year that isn't currently being mandated by federal and state court decrees (Medicaid bills, state employee and judicial salaries, etc.), continuing appropriations (bond and pension payments, legislative salaries), signed appropriations bills (K-12 education), and other things, and came up with $4.3 billion.

The $4.3 billion is the total amount that was paid out last year but is not currently being sent to colleges and universities, state-employee health-care providers, non-Medicaid social-service providers, MAP Grant college-student-aid recipients, and lottery winners over $25,000, plus various "transfers out," including to local governments for things such as motor-fuel-tax distributions.

Eventually, that money will have to be paid in full or in part, or significant portions of the state are gonna be in a big world of hurt.

06 Sep 2015

Failed Overrides Might Teach Democrats a Lesson

By Rich Miller

There was a reason why state Representative Esther Golar (D-Chicago) showed up late for session last Wednesday: She's been quite ill.

Golar was brought into the Statehouse on Wednesday afternoon via wheelchair. With a weak and halting voice, Golar asked for assistance putting on a light jacket while chatting with a smattering of well-wishers before walking to her seat on the House floor.

She told friends that she hadn't eaten solid food in three weeks, although she didn't say what had made her so ill. In desperate need of intravenous fluid, Golar eventually had to be taken to a Springfield hospital.

Through it all, the six-term South Side legislator said she absolutely had to attend session because she knew it was important - not just to help override the governor's veto of AFSCME's now-infamous "no strike" bill, but to have her say on all the other overrides and important measures.

A whole lot of bills went down in flames last Wednesday because Representative Ken Dunkin (D-Chicago) decided not to cut short his trip to New York and skipped the session. Numerous override motions failed by a single vote, as well as a bill designed to reverse the governor's 90-percent cut to child-care services.

30 Aug 2015

Both Parties Running Out the Clock with Illinois Finances

By Rich Miller

The Illinois fiscal crisis is only going to get worse, and the solution is becoming more difficult by the day.

As you probably know, the General Assembly and the governor have not yet agreed on a full state budget. But because of various federal judicial orders, a signed education-funding bill, and several ongoing statutory "continuing appropriations" (debt service, pension payments, legislative salaries, etc.), the government is on pace to spend billions of dollars more than it will bring in this fiscal year.

Guesstimates have been tossed around by various folks that the state could run out of money by March or maybe April if no formal budget agreement is reached. That's because all the judicial orders etc. are based on last fiscal year's budget, but last year's budget was based on revenue from a 5-percent income tax - which automatically fell to 3.75 percent in January.

Long term is grim, but so is the short term.

23 Aug 2015

Veto Override Could Mean War - or a Way Out

By Rich Miller

I think on August 19 a new and brief window of opportunity opened that might finally help wrap up this long and drawn-out state-legislative overtime session.

But that window will only be open for 15 calendar days - the time the state Constitution gives each legislative chamber to vote on a veto override.

Allow me to explain.

I spoke with some Rauner folks last week and, man, are they ever on the warpath about the Senate's August 19 override of the governor's veto of the AFSCME bill - legislation that would prevent a strike by or lockout of state workers and would instead require binding arbitration after an impasse is reached. The House has 15 days from that date to take its own action.

Even though AFSCME has never invoked its binding-arbitration power with state corrections officers (who cannot strike by law), the governor and his people clearly see this bill as an intrusion on executive-branch powers.

16 Aug 2015

Chicago Mayor Will Likely Facilitate End of State Stalemate

By Rich Miller

The absurd facade of this long-running state-government impasse might best be summed up with two brief statements.

(1) Governor Bruce Rauner to Democrats: Just support my plans to eviscerate organized labor and I'll give you the rare privilege of voting to raise everybody's income taxes.

(2) Democrats to Rauner: Just accept our piddly little workers' compensation reforms and we'll let you put all Republican legislators on an income-tax-hike bill, which you can then, of course, gleefully sign into law.

Those two statements bring to mind a long-ago description of the play Waiting for Godot. It was, the reviewer wrote, a play in which "nothing happens, twice."

Ain't that the truth. Neither of these things will ever happen.

I have heard some portray this standoff as something like a religious war, in which each side is so wedded to their own core belief structures - particularly when it comes to labor unions (Rauner against, Democrats for) - that all rapprochement is impossible.

But as hard-line as the summer has most certainly appeared, I am increasingly convinced that this overtime session isn't quite as simple as either of those comparisons.

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