So why did Governor Pat Quinn close the gap with Republican state Senator Bill Brady in Rasmussen Reports' latest poll? There's a one-word answer: women.

Rasmussen's newest poll had Brady ahead of Quinn 43-40. That's a pretty hefty swing from the firm's June poll, which had Brady with an 11-point lead, 47-36.

I was talking to my mom on the phone last week and just as I was about to hang up, she stopped me short and insisted that we talk about Governor Pat Quinn's big-time raises to his top staff.

If you've missed the story, Quinn gave out raises of as much as 20 percent to his senior staff while those same people were busily cutting everybody else's budgets and devising tax-increase strategies.

Unlike the state's mind-boggling $13-billion budget deficit, this is a very easy issue to understand for people who don't pay close attention to politics.

My mother does follow Illinois politics quite a bit, however, and she appears to be just as incensed about the immorality of handing out selective pay raises during one of the worst fiscal crises in history as she is about the abject political stupidity of Quinn's decision.

During the long, excruciating overtime state-legislative session of 2007, Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan complained that Governor Rod Blagojevich had a habit of diverting high-level discussions from the budget and toward Madigan's ties.

Madigan, it should be said, does wear some eye-catching ties. He takes no credit for his taste in clothing, however. His wife, he says, picks his ties for him.

Speaker Madigan confided to me one day back then that whenever Blagojevich would compliment Madigan on his choice of ties, he would always complain that, as governor, he couldn't afford such fashion gems. Madigan has a lucrative law practice that brings in a pretty penny. Blagojevich couldn't do side jobs as governor, he would repeatedly explain to Madigan and everyone else in the room, so he couldn't afford to dress like Madigan.

The House speaker seemed quite frustrated at the time with Blagojevich's fixation on his fetching ties, rather than dealing with the budget deadlock and general political gridlock. After all, it wasn't like Blagojevich dressed poorly. He always wore sharp clothes. He even showed up at the State Fair once dressed in designer blue jeans.

Thanks to his federal corruption trial, we now know that it was taste, not money, that caused Blagojevich to wax envious whenever he saw Madigan wearing a pretty tie.

Lon MonkTo many Illinois-politics insiders, one of the more surprising aspects of this Rod Blagojevich saga is not that the former governor was arrested. Most of them knew for years that he was heading for big trouble.

The late Chris Kelly's alleged misdeeds as one of Blagojevich's top fundraisers didn't stir all that much surprise. He was a high-pressure fundraiser who wouldn't take "no" for an answer. The conviction of wheeler-dealer Tony Rezko also wasn't that far from expectations. The man was obviously up to his eyeballs in corruption.

But the name of the fourth person who prosecutors say was in on the alleged schemes to skim as much money as possible during the Blagojevich era has taken quite a few insiders aback.

Back in 2003, Rod Blagojevich's former congressional chief of staff Dave Stricklin was asked by Chicago magazine to recall an example of his former boss' "goal-oriented approach to his congressional work."

"Having X amount of dollars raised by X date," was Stricklin's response.

The U.S. attorney's office has now posted several audio recordings online related to Lon Monk's testimony against Rod Blagojevich. I listened to them all last week, some of them twice, and it was beyond obvious that nothing changed for Blagojevich from the time he was a congressman right up until he was arrested.

Keep in mind while watching coverage of the Rod Blagojevich trial that reporters in the courtroom have a far keener understanding of what is going on than do the jurors. Their perceptions are not necessarily the same as the jurors' views. So their coverage may not match up to how the case will turn out.

For most of the jurors, this is their first time in a real courtroom. Unlike most of the reporters at the trial, this experience is all quite new to all but two of them who have served on juries before. And, unlike most of the reporters, they have limited knowledge of what the trial is all about and the context of the charges.

Most of the jurors know little of Rod Blagojevich and his administration except for their skimming of the local news and maybe seeing him a time or two on TV entertainment programs. One juror admitted that she checks the news "only for the weather."

Political reporters and pundits have a bad habit of saying, "If present trends continue ... ." The truth is, in politics, "present trends" almost always change.

Last week, Illinoisans were treated to a classic example of how that overused phrase can so often be horribly wrong.

Let's take a look back, shall we?

Bob BigginsIllinois House Republicans had a universal message for Representative Bob Biggins (R-Elmhurst) last week: You are officially an outcast.

Biggins infuriated his fellow Republicans by switching his position and voting for a $3.7-billion borrowing plan supported by Democrats. The money would be used to make the state's annual pension payment. Without it, the state would have to slash programs such as education and human services and health care or delay the payment, which could cost the pension funds tens of billions of dollars in the long term.

Twenty years ago, Secretary of State Jim Edgar and Attorney General Neil Hartigan ran for governor against each other. Both men released their tax returns without much fanfare.

Four years later, Governor Jim Edgar and his opponent, Comptroller Dawn Clark Netsch, both released their tax returns. It wasn't much of a story.

Then, in 1998, gubernatorial candidate George Ryan released his tax returns for the first time. He had adamantly refused to do so while he was secretary of state. And Ryan continued to refuse to release anything other than his current returns. Most of what he eventually got busted for happened while he was secretary of state, which may be no coincidence.

It occurred to me not long ago that the best analogy for this year's governor's race would be if the Washington Generals played the Washington Generals.

The Washington Generals basketball team was formed in the 1950s specifically to play solely against the Harlem Globetrotters. The Generals lost more than 13,000 games in the ensuing decades and won just a handful. All of those wins were due mainly to luck. If you ever saw them play, you know that the hapless team just couldn't do anything right. They were comedic in their supreme ineptness.

A Washington Generals split squad game would surely be a sight to behold. Fortunately for us, we don't have to imagine such a spectacle. We've got one right here in Illinois.

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