The Illinois House Democrats launched their direct-mail and TV program weeks earlier than the House Republicans in an attempt to knock GOP candidates down before they even had a chance to stand up.
The mail started going out not long after the mid-August Illinois State Fair. Four years ago, during a national Republican tidal wave, the House Republicans preemptively launched their advertising program in mid-September, catching the Democrats off-guard. The Republicans won a few seats they might not have picked off had they started at the usual time. The Democrats learned a valuable lesson, raised a ton of money, and began their mail and TV programs even earlier.
As a result, the Republicans - who don't have much money - have been buried by hundreds of thousands of dollars in early Democratic advertising.
And the Democrats have also beaten the Republicans to the punch when it comes to parroting the "message track" used by the current leader in the governor's race, Republican Bruce Rauner.
Rauner's been running his "Shake Up Springfield" ads all year. He's spent millions building his anti-incumbent, outsider message of term limits, tax cuts, and property-tax freezes.
But if you look at what the Democrats are doing everywhere in the state, the long-entrenched super-majority party is running ads very similar to Rauner's. They are, in one GOP operative's view, protecting their members by portraying Republican challengers as tax-loving incumbents and "tying them to the dysfunction."
"Mel Thillens in charge of our tax dollars is as reckless as a bull in a china shop," blares the headline on a recent House Democratic mailer that attacks the suburban Republican.
"Mel Thillens never met a tax increase he didn't like," the mailer claims on the other side, noting that Thillens voted to raise property taxes by almost 50 percent and voted for "deficit spending."
Representative Marty Moylan (D-Des Plaines) is "fighting against unfair property-tax hikes" by pushing legislation to cap them, the mailer continues. A concurrently running cable-TV ad presses home the same message: Thillens loves tax hikes and deficit spending.
"Politicians get enough perks when they retire," another pro-Moylan mailer states. "They shouldn't get free health care, too."
The mailer notes that Moylan opted out of the legislative pension system and sponsored legislation to get rid of health care for retired politicians. "Marty Moylan will fight to make sure our tax dollars are spent on our priorities, not perks for politicians."
The Republicans have a positive piece in mailboxes pointing out that Thillens "helps run a multi-million-dollar family business" and explaining why he wants to work "60 hours a week as a state representative."
In the age of Rauner's $18 watch and an intense anti-Springfield mentality, Thillens' message track is decidedly tone-deaf compared to Moylan's. Suggesting your candidate is a millionaire and claiming he can't wait to dive into the business of Springfield probably isn't a good idea.
As a result, Moylan is doing almost as well as Rauner in the 55th House District, according to a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll.
The poll of 334 likely voters taken September 10 found Moylan was leading Thillens 48-39. Rauner was ahead of Governor Pat Quinn 52-39 in the district. The poll had a margin of error of 5.4 percent.
The early and expensive independent-outsider messaging has attracted significant Republican support for Moylan. He's getting 19 percent of self-identified Republicans, compared to Thillens' 9 percent of Democrats. And the two are so far splitting the conservative-leaning independent vote, which made up 46 percent of the poll's voter sample.
That can also be seen as a sign of trouble for Moylan, however. If Republican voters "come home" and independents break heavily against the incumbent Moylan, this thing could tighten up. The House Democrats' messaging is designed to prevent that from happening.
Of course, this is just one poll - a snapshot in time that's open to interpretation. The House Democrats say their polling shows them in the driver's seat in the district, and the Republicans actually liked the We Ask America results.
But a poll taken near the beginning of the huge Democratic paid-media onslaught found Moylan ahead 47-33, with Rauner leading 51-36.
That poll was done by respected national pollster Fabrizio Lee on behalf of WLS Radio talk-show host Dan Proft's political fund. The live-caller survey of 300 likely voters was taken the week of August 25 and had a margin of error of 5.5 percent. The House Democrats much preferred those numbers.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
