The Republicans and Democrats have competed in seven statewide races these past two years (not including the presidential contest), and the Republicans have won precisely one - Judy Baar Topinka's re-election to a third term as state treasurer two years ago.
But that terrible record hasn't deterred several other Republicans from floating their names for statewide office. State Senator Steve Rauschenberger, who came in third in the Republican U.S. Senate primary last spring, has already said he'd like to run for governor. DuPage County Board Chairperson Bob Schillerstrom is aggressively floating his name for statewide office, although he is being cagey about which office he'd like to hold. Former state Senator Patrick O'Malley, who lost a Republican gubernatorial primary in 2002 to Jim Ryan, is still eyeing a slot on the ticket.
State Senator Dan Rutherford (R-Chenoa) has worked harder than almost anyone else for the past two years to position himself for a statewide race in the next two years. Rutherford has visited just about every county, and played a key role in the state Senate's one victory this fall - the loss of 22-year incumbent Senator Patrick Welch (D-Peru) to upstart Gary Dahl.
Millionaire Ron Gidwitz, a former chairperson of the state board of education and past CEO of Helene Curtis, is eyeing a gubernatorial bid and has helped establish himself by forming a statewide pro-education organization and working closely with business groups in this year's campaign.
Illinois Chamber of Commerce President Doug Whitley is also frequently mentioned. He won't rule out a run, but he does at least try to deflect much of the speculation. During a recent interview, Whitley said that prospective statewide candidates need to start working hard as soon as possible. "You'll pretty well know who the candidates are by March, and many will start announcing in January," Whitley predicted shortly before the Thanksgiving holiday.
There are several more potential Republican candidates out there, but this is a column, not a book, and we'll eventually get to everyone, like Bloomington state Senator Bill Brady, who is sending signals about a possible run.
The big question for most Republicans is Treasurer Topinka's future. Does she make the move for governor, or will she run for re-election? Insiders say she hasn't yet firmly decided what she will do, but it's believed she personally wants to run for the top office. The very real probability of slogging her way through a brutal primary only to immediately have to deal with a governor who has a seemingly bottomless pit of campaign cash is a big impediment, as you might imagine.
If Topinka runs for governor, there will be a stampede of Republicans filing to replace her as treasurer, with Senator Rutherford at the front of the pack.
The Democrats are also eyeing Topinka's moves these days because if she doesn't run for re-election and takes a shot at the governor's race, they'll have a chance to pick up what will likely be the only vacant seat available in 2006. Last summer, Secretary of State Jesse White announced he would run again in 2006 and 2010, so don't expect that job to open up any time soon.
Comptroller Dan Hynes is telling people that he won't challenge Governor Rod Blagojevich in the Democratic primary, so that pretty much leaves re-election or a Cook County bid.
Speaking of Cook County, some Democratic heavyweights are getting behind the idea of running Assessor Jim Houlihan for county-board president. Houlihan, a former state legislator, has strong reform credentials and is close to many of the powers-that-be, which is considered a good combination. But word is that the incumbent, John Stroger, wants another term.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter. He can be reached at (http://capitolfax.blogspot.com).