It's been assumed all along that Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan's proposal to spend $100 million to help build Barack Obama's presidential library was designed to put the Republicans on the spot and perhaps provoke an over-the-top or maybe even racial response, which would help gin up Democratic turnout a bit this November.
Obama has put the library's location out to bid, so Madigan's proposal is ostensibly meant to help Chicago attract what will likely be a pretty big tourist destination.
But politics is just about everything in Springfield these days. Democrats are hoping to crowd the November ballot with enough measures to excite their party base and get them out to vote. A constitutional amendment to forbid any voter discrimination along racial, ethnic, gender, etc. grounds was already approved for the ballot. A non-binding referendum on whether voters want to increase the minimum wage to $10 an hour is being prepared.
So this was mainly seen as another ploy to fire up the base.
But the Republicans have so far played it quite well, publicly pledging their own support for the library and focusing on the cost. No Republican legislator has yet crossed the line. Obama may not be popular elsewhere, but polling has consistently shown he remains popular here. There's no sense attacking him and risking a backlash.
Plus, the Republicans make a good point: Obama has proved to be an incredible fundraiser. He still has a lot of very wealthy supporters, and he just doesn't need any help raising money. The government doesn't really need to be involved.
Illinoisans overwhelmingly agree with the GOP.
"As you may know," 1,029 likely voters were told May 7 in a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, "some lawmakers in Springfield want the state to commit $100 million to help pay for the construction of the future presidential library for Barack Obama, if it is located in Illinois. We'd like to know whether or not you generally approve or disapprove of that $100-million proposal?"
Just 29 percent approved, while 67 percent disapproved. Four percent were unsure.
The only demographic support for the project wasn't even majority support. A plurality of Chicagoans supported the idea (48-43), as well as a slim plurality of African-Americans (45-44).
But a plurality of Democrats actually was against the plan (48-44). And the idea is hugely unpopular with everybody else. A whopping 68 percent of women, 66 percent of men, 75 percent of independents, 80 percent of Republicans, 74 percent of both Latinos and whites, 65 percent of suburban-Cook residents, 72 percent of collar-county residents, and 77 percent of Downstaters opposed the Obama presidential-library idea. (The poll's margin of error was 3.1 percent. Twenty-three percent of respondents were reached via cell phone.)
But even more said the state couldn't afford to help build the library.
"No matter how you feel about the presidential library," respondents were asked, "do you believe the state can afford to support it?"
Only 21 percent said the state could afford it, while 71 percent said it couldn't. Another 8 percent were unsure.
Not a single demographic category said the state could afford the project. Chicagoans said it was unaffordable 43-42, a 53-percent majority of Democrats said it was unaffordable, and African-Americans said it was unaffordable 54-35.
Everybody else's responses were almost off the charts. Seventy-one percent of women, 70 percent of men, 83 percent of Republicans, 79 percent of independents, 78 percent of whites, 69 percent of suburban Cook, and 80 percent of both collar-county residents and Downstaters said the state can't afford it.
Speaker Madigan has had a few misfires this year. He wanted to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot to levy a surcharge on income over a million dollars, but he couldn't round up enough votes.
Madigan said in March that he wanted to make the income-tax increase permanent, but last year 11 of his members - many of whom are politically vulnerable - introduced a bill to roll the tax hike all the way back. He has 71 Democrats and he needs 60 to pass the permanent-extension measure. That gives him no wiggle room at all.
And, as the poll makes clear, Madigan badly miscalculated with this Obama-library thing, both with Republican legislators and the voting public.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
