The trend in special elections around the country for the past several months has shown spiking Democratic voter turn-out and tanking Republican turn-out. And some preliminary primary election results from earlier this month show the same trend here.
What follows is a quick look at governor’s race turn-out in the state’s five most populous counties. Not all votes were counted when I wrote this, so the numbers are accurate as of early Friday. But the final count will be very close to what I have here.
Also, I’m not saying that these results are necessarily predictive of the November election. Things change in politics, and sometimes folks cross over to cast votes in competitive local elections and go back to where they were in the general. But the primary turn-out numbers have been a broad sign of things to come for quite a while, particularly in the suburbs, where we are looking today. The Republican Party has moved far to the other side of social issues important to suburban voters, and President Donald Trump’s unpopularity has been further driving that point home.
In DuPage County, the preliminary number of Republicans casting ballots for governor fell almost 32 percent compared to four years ago.
The DuPage Republican drop-off has been steady for years, coinciding with the party’s ever-shrinking success in the general election. Last week’s preliminary primary turn-out in the former Republican bastion is about 49 percent below 2014 – the last year the state elected a Republican governor.
Democratic turn-out in DuPage, on the other hand, is so far up a whopping 45 percent compared to four years ago. Democratic primary turn-out has greatly increased in the county since 2014, which was a horrible year for Democratic turn-out throughout the state. That year was President Barack Obama’s second midterm, and Governor Pat Quinn went on to lose to Bruce Rauner in the general.
DuPage Democratic turn-out in the governor’s race this year is up 586 percent (that’s not a typo) from 2014. And unlike some other jurisdictions, DuPage Democratic turn-out was significantly higher this spring (25 percent) than in the primary held during Trump’s first midterm election.
Needless to say, those numbers cannot provide any comfort to the shrinking number of Republican legislators and local officials who represent part or all of that county.
The same goes for Lake County, where Republican primary gubernatorial turn-out has collapsed by more than 48 percent compared to four years ago, while Democratic turn-out has risen by more than 27 percent. Lake is another suburban county with a disappearing general election GOP.
Republican primary turn-out in Lake has dropped every four years since 2010, and the preliminary numbers show that 59 percent fewer Republicans cast ballots for governor last week than in ’10.
Lake County Democratic primary turn-out so far is slightly above the previous record number recorded in 2018. And it’s up 501 percent compared to the party’s very bad year in 2014.
Will County’s Republican primary vote for governor has so far dropped more than 33 percent compared to four years ago, while Democratic turn-out has increased by about 33 percent.
This year’s Democratic primary turn-out in Will County is slightly down from Trump’s second midterm in 2018, but it’s up 282 percent from Obama’s miserable second midterm. Will’s Republican turn-out, as measured here by votes for governor, is down 31 percent from 2014.
Kane County has been trending Democratic ever since Trump’s first midterm in 2018. And even though about 4,000 more people voted for Republican gubernatorial candidates in 2022 than those who voted Democratic, Governor JB Pritzker went on to win that county in November by ten points. It’s a good reason to note again why this measurement isn’t always an accurate predictor. Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin was running for governor as a Republican that year, which likely explains the anomaly.
This year, preliminary numbers show that more than twice as many Democrats voted for an unopposed governor versus those who voted in the contested Republican gubernatorial race (46K to not quite 23K).
Kane Republican votes fell by 26 percent versus 2022. Democratic votes rose by a gigantic 71 percent.
Suburban Cook County long ago slipped away from significant Republican influence. Republican primary votes for governor are so far 33 percent below 2022, while Democratic turn-out is up 41 percent.
The suburban Cook Republican primary gubernatorial vote is down 48% from its most recent high-water mark in 2014.
Again, this is not a prediction. But legislative Republicans are right to be afraid of another suburban wipe-out.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.
