I joked to a Democrat last week that I seriously doubted state Representative Kevin McCarthy (D-Orland Park) would ever vote for a legislative pay raise again after getting whacked so hard by the Republicans this fall for his previous pay-hike votes. McCarthy has been brutalized for those votes, and he's had to work harder on this campaign than he has in over a decade.

"I don't think Kevin will vote for anything" came the reply.

He could very well be right, and not just about McCarthy. There are a whole lot of extremely frightened Democratic legislative incumbents out there right now, including those who don't have serious opponents. And even if individuals survive November 2, they will surely watch in horror as many of their colleagues go down in flames.

Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell told Iowa Democratic Party faithful Saturday night that he'd rather lose fighting for something he believes in than win standing for nothing - but he doesn't believe Governor Chet Culver will lose to former Governor Terry Branstad on November 2.

"For a moment, don't worry about the other guy," Rendell said. "An incumbent deserves to be re-elected if he's done a good job. Chet Culver has done a very good job."

Rendell also said Culver and other Democrats should stand up and talk about their accomplishments more clearly with voters, but also be honest about the tough times many Iowans and Americans are facing.

"We've got to continue reminding voters, 'Hey, you may be disappointed in the way things are going in the country; you may be disappointed in the president.' In Pennsylvania, they may be disappointed in some of the things I've done. But it's not a referendum; it's a choice," Rendell said.

It's not every day that a group almost nobody has ever heard of gives $175,000 to a single state legislative candidate. But that's just what happened on October 7, when Stand for Children Illinois PAC handed over that gigantic check to Republican Ryan Higgins, who is vying to replace retiring state Representative Paul Froehlich (D-Schaumburg).

In fact, Stand for Children's $175,000 check represents the largest single contribution to a legislative candidate - other than from a caucus leader or a party organization, or candidate loans to themselves - since contribution records were put online 16 years ago. It's probably a good bet that the group's contribution to Higgins is the single largest "outside" legislative campaign check in modern Illinois history.

All three members of the state's Revenue Estimating Conference said they are "cautiously optimistic" about the economy as they voted to increase the estimate of Iowa's state revenues this fiscal year by nearly $300 million since their last estimate in March.

The new projection for Fiscal Year 2011 is $5.76 billion, a 2.2-percent increase over last year. The panel also made its first revenue estimate for fiscal year 2012 of $5.95 billion, which would be a 3.3-percent increase over the projection for the current year.

The focus of my campaign remains getting Iowans back to work and balancing the state budget by reducing government spending. In the spirit of reducing government spending and protecting our liberties, I have decided to pursue my inclination to de-criminalize marijuana use and distribution in the state of Iowa if elected to the Senate. Let me be clear that changing Iowa's law will not change the federal classification of marijuana. Further let me also state that I will not pursue a policy of "medical marijuana" that will pit the state law against the federal law and contribute to a California-like problem that comes with taxation and commercialization.

What do Scott County, Iowa, and Chicago have in common?

Not much, except that a company from Chicago is about to get a $160,000 contract paid for by Iowa taxpayer dollars.

For what, you ask? An energy audit on the county's eight facilities - including the brand new, state-of-the-art Scott County courthouse and jail.

Why does a two-year-old multi-million-dollar facility need an energy audit?

I doubt it does. However, the county had secured some grant money (a.k.a. Iowa taxpayer dollars), and when they found out the audit was going to cost less than expected on the two buildings that were originally slated for, they decided to spend the rest because they thought it was better to find a place to "spend, spend, spend" instead of patting themselves on the back for what could have been tens of thousands of dollars of savings to the state.

The race for governor appears to be seriously tightening. The U.S. Senate race has been close all along. Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White, both Democrats, are surely heading for big wins next month.

But Republicans are doing quite well in congressional and state legislative races pretty much all over Illinois except in the "bluest" of the blue regions in and near Chicago. Down-ballot Democratic incumbents are running scared all over the place.

And if you want to see how truly weird this election year is, then head on over to House Speaker Madigan's southwest-side Chicago district. Madigan has sent five campaign mailers to his constituents over the past several days.

Trailing in the polls and with time running out before Election Day, Governor Chet Culver on Thursday came out gunning for rival Terry Branstad in their second debate, repeatedly stating that Branstad raised taxes on multiple occasions during his previous tenure as governor and broke promises to Iowans when it came to job-creation and other policy initiatives.

"Terry Branstad has broken his promises to Iowans since he was governor back in 1983," Culver said. "Branstad has been a serial promise-maker and a habitual promise-breaker when it comes to jobs."

Branstad has promised to add 200,000 jobs to the state over the next five years if he is elected. Culver argued this was an empty promise, much like earlier job-creation promises that weren't fulfilled during Branstad's tenure as governor. Meanwhile, Branstad claimed the 200,000 figure to be an "ambitious goal" that could be accomplished.

For his part, Republican Branstad criticized Democrat Culver multiple times on spending and his handling of the state budget, noting the one-year anniversary of Culver's decision to cut the state budget 10 percent to account for a budget shortfall. Branstad said the cuts were the result of Culver signing a too-large budget in the midst of a recession.

While the Republicans say the pollsters are contacting the wrong people, the fact remains that three polls released last week had the Illinois governor's race within 2 percentage points. And five polls released in the past month have shown it to be a single-digit race.

The Chicago Tribune's pollster had Democratic Governor Pat Quinn leading Republican state Senator Bill Brady 39-38 last week, which is a narrower margin than its 5-point Brady lead a month ago. A CNN/Time poll had Brady up by 2, and a Democratic Governor's Association poll had Brady up by one. Public Policy Polling had Brady with a 7-point lead.

The Republicans say the "universe" is skewed on all these polls. They believe that Republicans could actually outnumber Democrats come Election Day by a narrow margin. At the very least, they say, those other polls just skew too far Democratic.

If the Republicans are right, it would be the first time their party would outnumber or come close to outnumbering Democrats in any Illinois election in a very long time. This is a weird year, so nobody really knows who's correct at the moment. Still, you need to keep the GOP's strong objections very much in mind as we head into the final weeks of this campaign.

President Barack Obama used a backyard discussion in Des Moines this week to urge patience on the economy and defend a plan to end the Bush tax cuts for Americans making more than $250,000, saying the nation can't afford the $700-billion price tag and must make tough choices.

"What we've proposed is to extend the Bush tax cuts for all income up to $250,000," Obama said. "The reason I think it's important for us to do this is not because I'm not sympathetic to small businesses. It has to do with the fact that 98 percent of small businesses actually have profit of less than $250,000."

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