An organization controlled by Governor Bruce Rauner has spent a million dollars in a little over a week on a new television ad promoting legislative term limits. And that’s just for starters.
Turnaround Illinois Inc. is one of those “dark money” not-for-profit groups that doesn’t have to disclose its donors. It has so far booked $1,015,084 in broadcast-, satellite-, and cable-TV ads.
The group purchased $684,455 in broadcast-TV ads scheduled to run from August 5 through 14. The biggest chunk – $344,850 – was spent on expensive Chicago broadcast-TV spots. All the ad buys are expected to be renewed.
Rauner’s TV ad features several “real people” talking about the need for term limits. Rauner has also set up a Web site where folks can sign an electronic petition supporting the idea. One of the people appearing in the ad exhorts watchers to help them get “a million signatures.” Rauner himself appears at the end of the ad to say, “Let’s all sign the term-limits petition. Go to FixIllinois.com.”
Before the ads appeared, Rauner spent several days touring the state demanding that House and Senate Democrats come back after the election and pass a term-limits constitutional amendment.
Yes, the issue is solely political and more than a bit phony. Even if the legislature passed a term-limits proposal this November (and it won’t), the limits wouldn’t actually get in front of voters for two more years, and then wouldn’t start limiting terms for another 10 years. By that time, House Speaker Michael Madigan would be 86 years old, and he could still run for a state Senate seat.
But the House Democrats are notorious for using federal issues such as Medicare and Social Security in state legislative races, so ... whatever.
Rauner’s group paid $130,820 for St. Louis broadcast television, even though most of those viewers live in Missouri. Illinois candidates often skip St. Louis broadcast entirely, or wait until late in the game to air any ads because they aren’t very cost-effective. You always know somebody has big bucks to throw around when they go on St. Louis TV, and it’s practically unheard of in early August.
The Rauner organization also plunked down $32,000 for broadcast ads in the Champaign/Springfield/Decatur market; $73,000 in the Quad Cities (where Democratic Representative Mike Smiddy is attempting to hold on to his seat); $57,000 in the already crowded (with state-legislative ads) Paducah, Kentucky, market; $21,000 in Quincy; and $25,000 in Peoria.
In addition, Rauner has dumped $207,000 on satellite-TV ads through August 25 and appears to have added to his initial $21,989 cable-TV buy with $101,640 more through August 14. The cable-buy locations line up with suburban and Downstate Democratic legislative districts that Rauner’s political organization has targeted.
What’s going on here? First and foremost, Rauner needs to improve his own polling numbers, both for his 2018 re-election campaign and, more immediately, so his involvement can be of some use to his Republican legislative candidates this fall.
A recent poll conducted for Democratic U.S. Represenative Tammy Duckworth’s U.S. Senate campaign found that Rauner’s job-approval rating was 37 percent, with a disapproval of 55 percent. “He’s been sitting around there for all of 2016, so opinions are hardening,” said a source familiar with the poll’s findings.
Rauner’s people counter with their own poll numbers that they say have Rauner’s approve/disapprove mix at 44/49.
Either way, Rauner has to start moving numbers his direction to have a positive impact on this year’s election. The term-limits issue polls off the charts in this state, so firmly attaching himself to the proposal in an unprecedented and sustained advertising buy will likely help. Seventy-eight percent of respondents supported term limits in a February poll taken by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
The information-gathering aspect of this term-limits push also can’t be ignored. Rauner has reportedly put his trusted lieutenant Chip Englander in charge of his data project. All his legislative races are gathering lots of data, and it’s being pooled in one spot. Building on Rauner’s 2014 race, and adding this year’s data (including from those who sign up online for the term-limits pledge), the Illinois GOP could be “among the nation’s elite in data” for 2018, predicted a Republican insider. “Maybe the top.”
And regardless of which poll is accurate, he’s gonna need every bit of help he can muster, both this year and during the next cycle.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
