While the Republicans say the pollsters are contacting the wrong people, the fact remains that three polls released last week had the Illinois governor's race within 2 percentage points. And five polls released in the past month have shown it to be a single-digit race.

The Chicago Tribune's pollster had Democratic Governor Pat Quinn leading Republican state Senator Bill Brady 39-38 last week, which is a narrower margin than its 5-point Brady lead a month ago. A CNN/Time poll had Brady up by 2, and a Democratic Governor's Association poll had Brady up by one. Public Policy Polling had Brady with a 7-point lead.

The Republicans say the "universe" is skewed on all these polls. They believe that Republicans could actually outnumber Democrats come Election Day by a narrow margin. At the very least, they say, those other polls just skew too far Democratic.

If the Republicans are right, it would be the first time their party would outnumber or come close to outnumbering Democrats in any Illinois election in a very long time. This is a weird year, so nobody really knows who's correct at the moment. Still, you need to keep the GOP's strong objections very much in mind as we head into the final weeks of this campaign.

The union that represents thousands of state and local government employees, AFSCME, was one of the bigger Democratic campaign contributors in the final six months of the 2008 campaign. But this year the union will be sitting out almost all of the Illinois House Democrats' top races.

The union met in Springfield several days ago to formalize its endorsements. They announced backing for Governor Pat Quinn, Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate, Judy Baar Topinka for comptroller, and Robin Kelly for treasurer. But their legislative endorsements - and their lack of endorsements - were the most interesting.

A Virginia-based group that wanted to play in Illinois politics but didn't want to disclose its donors has lost round one in what could be an extended court battle.

The Center for Individual Freedom (CFIF) filed a federal lawsuit earlier this summer claiming that the state's contribution-disclosure laws for not-for-profits and political committees should be tossed out.

There is no doubt whatsoever that Republicans in this state have every reason to cheer, and Democrats have all the reasons in the world to grumble.

Republicans have a fired-up, angry base that can't wait to vote. The Democratic base is morose, embarrassed at its party's failures, and in no mood to even think about voting.

Numerous pollsters and prognosticators have pointed to the eerie similarities between the public's mood now and at the same point in the huge Republican year of 1994 -- the last time we had a Democratic president facing his first midterm election.