For the past several weeks, I've been confiding to friends that I think Governor Pat Quinn has turned out to be a much better campaigner than anyone expected, and a much worse governor than everyone had hoped.

The campaign team that Quinn has put together is quite good. He's raised a ton of cash, which has paid for some well-produced television ads.

"He's had to unlearn three decades of muscle memory," cracked someone from inside Quinn's campaign a couple of months ago.

Indeed.

Andy McKennaFour years ago during the last Republican gubernatorial primary, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis was sharply and widely criticized for running fake newspaper headlines in his TV ads. Now, it's happening again with a different wealthy gubernatorial hopeful.

Republican Andy McKenna's latest TV ad stays with his original theme of former Governor Rod Blagojevich's hair. The spot begins the same as his first ad, with a visual of a Blagojevich-like wig on top of the Statehouse and a Blagojevich look-alike walking into the shot. McKenna's first TV ad placed the wig on several previous governors, including George Ryan and Dan Walker, as well as on a baby. The hair is supposed to be a metaphor for the state's history of corruption.

The McKenna ad's announcer then claims the state faces an $11-billion deficit while "Governor Quinn hides the truth." The accompanying visual is the phrase: "Quinn hides the truth," and a reference to a November 18 Chicago Tribune article.

Trouble is, the Tribune published no such article with that headline. The article itself is about a contentious public debate between Quinn and his Democratic primary rival Dan Hynes, but nowhere in the article does Hynes accuse Quinn of "hiding" anything.

The original hope of Dan Hynes' Democratic gubernatorial campaign was that it could outspend and beat up Pat Quinn on TV by Thanksgiving to the point where the governor was vulnerable in the February 2 primary.

Early benchmark polling for Quinn had him leading Hynes 54-26, with other polls showing similar results. Hynes' name ID was a relatively low 67 percent, compared to Quinn's 88 percent.

Since then, Hynes has spent close to $2 million on TV ads, but Quinn has matched him pretty much dollar for dollar. And while Hynes stopped running network TV ads on November 11 and went dark on cable last week, Quinn was up with a positive bio ad last week on both network and cable.

If you ever wondered whether Governor Pat Quinn would do whatever it takes to win re-election, all you need to do is look at his latest TV ad.

The spot is perhaps the most misleading TV advertisement of the season so far, but it packs quite a wallop. Quinn cannily "accuses" his Democratic primary opponent, Comptroller Dan Hynes, of having "signed off on every single state check."

"Now Hynes claims he'll cut the budget line by line, but as comptroller for 12 years he signed off on every single state check," the Quinn ad alleges.

The Quinn campaign claimed after the ad aired that they were trying to say that Hynes' statutory check-signing duties meant he ought to know what the budget is all about already and that Hynes shouldn't need to go over the budget line by line after he's elected to figure out where to cut waste and over-spending.

While the Quinn campaign's explanation for why they worded the attack ad the way they did is an interesting afterthought, if you watch the spot carefully you'll see that what it's really trying to say is Hynes is somehow responsible for the mess the state is in.

"Tea party fever" is to the Republican Party what the H1N1 flu is to the general populace. It's spreading fast and it's potentially dangerous.

Establishment Republican politicians all over the country are becoming more freaked out by the angry, anti-tax tea-party protestors and are mimicking their rhetoric. Even in Illinois, where top GOP politicians mostly took a pass on the harsher aspects of the "Reagan revolution" rhetoric of the past 30 years - not wanting to alienate the general electorate - the trend is becoming obvious.

A few weeks ago, I asked a top Republican what his party's plan was in the ongoing war over campaign-finance reform.

"We are not for some sham ethics bill," the official said, then added with tongue slightly in cheek, "We stand with the reformers, until they capitulate, then I'm not sure where we stand, but I'll let you know."

The Republicans are badly outnumbered in both the Illinois House and Senate, they don't raise as much money as the Democrats, their party has been on the outs with voters since Governor George Ryan went down in flames and President George W. Bush alienated most of the state.

So the Republicans did the politically smart thing and eagerly professed their undying love for reform and pledged their never-ending loyalty to those plucky reformers -- all the while using the reform issue and the reform groups as a partisan sledgehammer against the Democrats. It was a smart political play.

For the first time since Pat Quinn became governor, a Rasmussen Reports poll of Illinoisans shows that more than half of all voters disapprove of his performance.

The poll of 500 likely Illinois voters taken October 14 found that 53 percent disapproved of Quinn's performance, while 45 percent approved. That's a six-point switch from August, when Rasmussen had Quinn's approval at 47 percent and his disapproval at 49 percent. Back in June, Quinn's approval was measured at 57 percent, while his disapproval was 41. In April, Rasmussen had Quinn's approval rating at 61 percent and his disapproval at just 37 percent. There's an obvious trend.

Underdog Democratic U.S. Senate candidate David Hoffman has a new poll that purports to show that he's in the hunt, but the camp of primary Democratic rival Alexi Giannoulias says there's no way the poll is accurate.

Hoffman's survey of 505 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted October 2 through 4 by Hart Research Associates. The initial head-to-head has state Treasurer Giannoulias leading with 18 percent, followed by Urban League President Cheryle Jackson at 7 percent and 5 percent for former Chicago Inspector General Hoffman.

The Giannoulias campaign, however, points to a poll it took July 28 through August 2 that had their guy at 45 percent, with 17 percent for Chris Kennedy and 13 percent for Jackson. No way, they say, could they be as low as Hoffman's poll shows.

You may have read the news by now that former Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan is seriously considering another run for governor. Ryan commissioned a poll that shows him leading the GOP pack and running neck-and-neck with Comptroller Dan Hynes and trailing Governor Pat Quinn by five points.

That ain't bad considering Ryan's been out of politics since he lost the 2002 gubernatorial race to Rod Blagojevich.

Ryan's last name, however, will always be a liability in the wake of George Ryan's conviction and imprisonment. Nineteen percent of those polled thought Jim Ryan was the former governor, for instance, and only 10 percent knew he was the former attorney general. Ryan's name identification in the poll is only surpassed by Quinn, although Ryan's negatives are as high as Quinn's - likely because of that toxic last name.

One of Governor Pat Quinn's favorite lines is "I speak truth to power." He uses it almost all the time, and has for years.

It appears to be a verbal tic. Quinn has grown so accustomed to saying it for so long that he can't stop himself. He said it once while explaining how he would pitch his income-tax-hike plan to average voters.

The governor has several of these verbal tics. He talks about the "chirpers on the sidelines," and how there is always "more than one way to get to Heaven." His favorite little phrase for his Democratic primary opponent Dan Hynes is "ankle biter."

Quinn's constant use of those little phrases, but particularly his "truth to power" line, gives us a window into how he thinks. It's no surprise. He's been a populist forever.

The "truth to power" phrase also defines how the media has covered Quinn throughout his career. The unwavering story line is that Quinn is the outsider, the rock thrower, the lone voice in the wilderness shouting for the common man.

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