One of the biggest doubts about state Senator Bill Brady's gubernatorial campaign - assuming he survives a potential recount of the Republican primary - is whether he can transform himself from a primary candidate into a serious general-election candidate.

Like most members of the state House and Senate, Brady has never once faced a real general-election opponent.

Brady, of Bloomington, focused almost solely on his Downstate base and barely campaigned at all in the suburbs during his Republican gubernatorial bid, so independent suburban women might as well be foreigners to him. Since Illinois is such a "blue" state, he'll have to convince thousands of Democratic-leaning voters to cross over for him.

Every night before an election day, I spend four or five hours on the phone with people I trust asking what they think will happen.

There are always a couple of races that will have them stumped, but I've never seen everybody perplexed about so many outcomes until the night before last week's election.

Take, for instance, the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Lawyers for Rod Blagojevich told reporters last week that there might be a delay in the former governor's criminal trial when a federal grand jury, as expected, hands down a new indictment. But they also stressed that they were working hard to keep the trial on track for its June start date.

As I write this, the U.S. attorney's office in Chicago is hoping to re-indict Blagojevich to make sure its criminal case isn't damaged by an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the federal "honest services" statute. The brief statute has been used by federal prosecutors for years to prosecute politicians and corporate executives on a wide variety of charges, claiming they defrauded citizens, investors, etc. via "a scheme or artifice to deprive another of the intangible right of honest services."

Rich MillerWith the primary election just around the corner, just about everybody I know has asked me who I think will win the various races.

"The Governor, at the beginning of each annual session of the General Assembly and at the close of his term of office, shall report to the General Assembly on the condition of the State and recommend such measures as he deems desirable." - Illinois Constitution

I don't know if Governor Pat Quinn glanced at the state Constitution before he jotted down his notes, but the rambled, jumbled, disjointed mess he delivered off the cuff last week was not a State of the State address.

Governor Pat Quinn was quoted by the Associated Press last week as saying he's answered all questions about his administration's controversial, secret, and completely botched early prison-release program, so he's done talking about it.

I beg to differ.

I called the Department of Corrections soon after I saw that quote and asked a few questions that I've never seen asked.

According to two recent polls taken by Rasmussen Reports and one by the Chicago Tribune, Governor Pat Quinn has a detectable and significant problem with women voters, but a new development in the campaign might help the governor overcome this gender gap.

Rasmussen recently matched Republican gubernatorial frontrunner Jim Ryan against Democrats Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes. Ryan outpolled Quinn by seven points (46-39), but the former Republican attorney general trailed Hynes by two points (40-42).

What's going on? Well, the poll's internals show a stark difference among women voters. Ryan leads Quinn 45-36 among women, but Hynes reverses the result and leads Ryan 42-32 with women. That's a huge difference, but it seems to hold up when compared to other recent polling.

For years, reporters and pundits have said that Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan preferred Republican governors because Madigan wanted to be the state's most powerful Democrat.

There is some truth to that. Madigan hasn't played well at all with the two Democratic governors whom he's served under as speaker. He battled constantly with Rod Blagojevich, and he's made Pat Quinn squirm time and time again, including holding a press conference during which he repeatedly castigated Quinn for "flip-flopping."

But there was always much more going on than just Madigan's desire to be the absolute top dog. As we've seen time and time again over the decades, Madigan prefers to share the pain of governing with the other party to deflect blame from his own party. It's one way he's held onto power for so long. And it's tough to do that without a Republican governor.

Last week we all celebrated -- or bemoaned -- the first anniversary of Rod Blagojevich's arrest. After Blagojevich was impeached and removed from office, I, like most others, thought that things were going to be different with Pat Quinn in charge.

But the Statehouse bickering continues and the gridlock over the state's paralyzing and mind-boggling budget deficit is almost as bad as ever. Heck, it may even be worse.

For the past several weeks, I've been confiding to friends that I think Governor Pat Quinn has turned out to be a much better campaigner than anyone expected, and a much worse governor than everyone had hoped.

The campaign team that Quinn has put together is quite good. He's raised a ton of cash, which has paid for some well-produced television ads.

"He's had to unlearn three decades of muscle memory," cracked someone from inside Quinn's campaign a couple of months ago.

Indeed.

Pages