Before Friday's horrific school shooting in Connecticut, people on both sides of the concealed-carry debate were saying privately that they did not expect Attorney General Lisa Madigan to appeal her major loss at the hands of the U.S. Court of Appeals.

A Seventh Circuit panel in Chicago voted 2-1 on December 11 to declare Illinois' strict laws on carrying guns unconstitutional and gave the General Assembly 180 days to come up with a new, much less restrictive law.

"A right to bear arms ... implies a right to carry a loaded gun outside the home," the majority opinion decreed, saying that Illinois had failed to show that restrictions on gun owners - including bans on concealed carry - had any positive effect.

Appealing to the U.S. Supreme Court could be harmful to the anti-gun cause, both sides admitted last week. New York's wealthy, influential, and legendarily anti-gun mayor could oppose an appeal out of fear that the conservative Supremes wouldn't preserve his own state's laws, which allow him to keep most concealed weapons off the street. Other states that allow limited concealed carry, such as Maryland and California, will also probably oppose an appeal for the same reason. They just don't trust the U.S. Supreme Court to uphold their restrictive laws.

One of the most fascinating things about the media frenzy surrounding state Senator Donne Trotter's arrest last week was that not one of his Democratic Second Congressional District opponents immediately jumped in front of the cameras to comment publicly about the matter.

They stayed silent even when Trotter (D-Chicago) announced after he was bonded out of jail the next day that he wouldn't drop out of the race to replace disgraced former Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr.

Trotter was arrested Wednesday morning after allegedly attempting to bring an unloaded pistol through a security checkpoint at O'Hare airport. Reporters swarmed the courthouse after Trotter posted bond Thursday and then, when he refused comment, some descended on his home on Chicago's South Side.

His arrest was one of the biggest news stories in the city, mainly because of his congressional bid, yet none of his dozen or so prospective Democratic opponents in the Second District special-election contest immediately issued a statement or responded on-the-record to questions about the case.

Five years ago, most Illinois House Republicans, including House GOP Leader Tom Cross, voted against a bill that would've allowed undocumented immigrants to obtain state driver's licenses. The conservative rhetoric against the legislation was very harsh. Even so, it was approved by the House but never called for a floor vote in the state Senate.

Back then, the legislation was seen as political suicide by many Republicans fearful of a backlash within their own party. But because November's election results showed that a heavy Latino turnout may have swayed several races in favor of the Democrats, Republicans have suddenly become far more interested. Cross, for instance, called the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant & Refugee Rights (ICIRR) the day after the election, offering to work with the group. The ICIRR now considers that the driver's license bill will be a "down payment" on whether the parties want to make a "good-faith effort" to work with it in the future. And Cross is supporting it.

For the past few years, the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago has been one of the most feared participants in the state's pension-reform debate.

Ty Fahner, a former Illinois attorney general who heads the Civic Committee, managed to convince both parties to elbow each other for a position of favor with him and his group.

When Fahner ended up siding with the House Democrats back in May and endorsing their pension-reform plan, including shifting costs to school districts, the House Republicans were furious and disappointed. They had been assiduously courting Fahner, and figured that since the Civic Committee is composed of several top Chicago business leaders, they'd be the natural ally of choice.

Not to mention that Fahner also formed a political action committee ("We Mean Business") to back up his word. Everybody wanted that money, so the PAC gave his position additional strength.

But those days appear to be behind us, at least for now. Fahner's histrionics last week over what he claimed was an "unfixable" pension problem have all but cut him out of the Statehouse mix. "He's made himself irrelevant," said one top Democratic official who is intimately involved with pension reform.

Back in 1992, Latinos made up about 8 percent of Illinois' population, yet only 1 percent of that year's total election-day voter pool was Latino. The trend continued for years. Latinos just didn't vote.

Twenty years later, things have changed in a big way. According to exit polling, 12 percent of Illinois voters last week were Latino - compared to the 16 percent of Illinois residents who are Latino.

That high participation contributed to many of last week's electoral surprises.

There's nothing quite like the spectacle of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan when he's out to get somebody.

Just ask state Representative Skip Saviano (R-Elmwood Park).

The two men used to be allies, even friends. Saviano supported Madigan's daughter when Lisa ran for state attorney general. But then Lisa turned against Saviano's political mentor, the late Rosemont Mayor Don Stephens, blocking his dream of building a local casino because, she claimed, he was tied to the mob. Saviano vowed revenge.

Independent expenditures in state legislative races are closing in on the $2-million mark since July 1, with most of that spending coming in the month of October, Illinois State Board of Elections records show.

In March, a federal judge struck down Illinois' law capping contributions to so-called state super-PACs. Since then, according to the State Board of Elections' Web site, $1.8 million has been spent by groups on Illinois campaigns, and - as of late last week - $1.3 million of that has been spent in the month of October alone.

Super-PAC money is expected to increase exponentially in 2014, when the governorship and other statewide offices are up for election. So far, just 11 independent-expenditure committees have been formed, but more will surely come after this cycle ends.

Ever since I published a poll last month showing indicted former state Representative Derrick Smith (D-Chicago) leading third-party candidate Lance Tyson in the 10th Illinois House District race by a mind-boggling 47 percent to 9 percent, there's been a lot of grumbling about how Chicago voters ought to know better. Smith was arrested and indicted, after all. It was all over the news. People should know that, for crying out loud.

At the time the poll was taken, however, Tyson hadn't spent much if any money on his campaign. He isn't a known quantity in the district. And he's not a Democrat - at least, he's not a Democrat on the ballot. Likely voters were given the choice between Smith and Tyson and told their party affiliations. Smith won the Democratic primary; Tyson belongs to the newly created 10th District Unity Party.

Convincing voters to take a look at third-party or independent candidates is never easy. Go back to 1986, when some members of Lyndon LaRouche's cultish organization won some statewide Democratic primary races here. Democrat Adlai Stevenson's running mate was beaten by one of those candidates, and Stevenson had to form a third party to run for governor.

One way of getting around the state's new campaign-contribution caps is by forming a lot of different campaign committees. State law forbids people from forming more than one committee (except for independent expenditures, political parties, and state legislative leaders), but nothing in the law prevents "friends" and allies from forming their own committees to receive and give money.

For example, House Republican Leader Tom Cross has his own PAC (Citizens to Elect Tom Cross) and his allowed "caucus" PAC (the House Republican Leadership Committee), and he also appears to control or at least influence four other committees: Illinois Crossroads PAC, Citizens to Change Illinois, the Illinois House Victory Fund, and the Move Illinois Forward PAC.

Before we go any further, let me stress that none of this appears to be illegal. The House Republicans don't deny they're doing this, with one official saying that they even include these campaign accounts in the presentations they give to large donors.

There's not a lot that a state legislative candidate can do when his or her party's presidential nominee starts to tank.

The presidential race drives turnout to the point where down-ballot candidates must struggle mightily to rise above the noise and get their messages heard by distracted voters.

And because there are no statewide races in Illinois this year, that means there are no truly high-profile campaigns to "break up" any presidential advantage or momentum. Congressional races are all that state legislators have now to cushion the blow from the top, and down-ballot candidates are increasingly pinning their hopes on those contests.

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