18 Aug 2013

Two GOP Hopefuls Could Be Sunk by Ties to Democrats

By Rich Miller

I had heard that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner's longtime personal and business connections to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel were "killer" issues among GOP primary voters, so I commissioned a poll.

The question I settled on is pretty mild in comparison to what could be used in a TV ad, so the response may turn out to be even worse for Rauner than the Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll shows, if that's possible.

"Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for governor if you found out he was a friend and political ally to Chicago Democratic Mayor Rahm Emanuel?" 1,102 likely Republican-primary voters were asked on August 13.

A truly astounding 83 percent of Republicans said they'd be less likely to support that candidate. Any time you see a "less likely" response above 80 percent, you can pretty much figure that the target is toast. But maybe not in this case.

11 Aug 2013

Attorney General Has Questions to Answer About Campaign Decision

By Rich Miller

"Ask her," Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan told a Sun-Times reporter last week. The journalist wanted to know why Madigan's daughter Lisa would consider running for governor knowing that her father had no plans to step down as speaker.

So I tried to ask her. But I didn't get very far.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan, I was told, is still refusing to discuss in any way the "personal" conversations she had with her father leading up to her decision not to run for governor.

Attorney General Madigan had this to say when she announced she would run for re-election instead of the state's highest office: "I feel strongly that the state would not be well served by having a governor and speaker of the House from the same family and have never planned to run for governor if that would be the case. With Speaker Madigan planning to continue in office, I will not run for governor."

But last week, Speaker Madigan said he had told his daughter on "several occasions" that he had no plans to step down. "She knew very well that I did not plan to retire," he said. "She knew what my position was. She knew."

04 Aug 2013

Unknown Legislator Could Craft Credible Statewide Campaign

By Rich Miller

State Senator Kwame RaoulState Senator Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) was apparently taken aback a few weeks ago when his standard public comments about not ruling out a race for governor were taken as a dramatic sign that he might very well run.

The public reaction should've been predictable. The most recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, taken in mid-July, had Governor Pat Quinn getting just 38 percent of the Democratic-primary vote. That's pretty awful for an incumbent. Bill Daley, who made his exploratory candidacy official last week, was at 33 percent.

That leaves a lot of wide-open space for a new challenger. There is a very definable path for Raoul to do well here. And while he might not win, he'd likely set himself up for a future statewide race - possibly the 2016 U.S. Senate primary - if he runs a credible campaign. There really just isn't much of a downside, so let's look at his path.

28 Jul 2013

Questions Swirl Around Quinn's Legislative-Salary Veto

By Rich Miller

House Speaker Michael Madigan has always strongly guarded the powers of the General Assembly as a coequal branch of government, so it was a little surprising when he appeared to support Governor Pat Quinn's line-item veto of legislative salaries in mid-July.

The governor vetoed the salaries in retaliation for the General Assembly's failure to pass a pension-reform bill. In a press release the day of the veto, Madigan said he understood the governor's frustration with the lack of progress, adding, "I am hopeful his strategy works."

Behind the scenes, though, Madigan is said to be furious with the governor's veto. Madigan's legal staff has been meeting with other lawyers to set strategy to either get around the veto or oppose it. So far, they are not finding much in the way of non-court options.

21 Jul 2013

Poll Shows Daley Vulnerable to Bank Attacks

By Rich Miller

Governor Pat Quinn is leading his sole Democratic-primary rival, and challenger Bill Daley will have some serious problems with his blue-chip résumé, according to a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll.

The poll of 1,394 likely Democratic primary voters found Quinn leading Daley by five points, 38-33. That's exactly where the two stood in a January poll. A June poll had Daley leading Quinn by a point, 38-37, but since then Quinn has made some popular moves, including vetoing legislative salaries out of the budget and using his veto powers to rewrite the concealed-carry bill.

The most recent poll was taken July 17, a day after Attorney General Lisa Madigan shook up the race by announcing her decision not to run for governor. It had a margin of error of 2.6 percent. Cell phones made up 28 percent of those called.

Twenty-eight percent of likely primary voters were undecided, suggesting that there is plenty of room for movement by either man and possibly an opening for someone else to enter the race.

14 Jul 2013

Quinn Scores with His Populist Playbook

By Rich Miller

Years ago, Governor Pat Quinn told a friend of mine that Illinois voters were pretty easy to understand. Illinoisans love populism, Quinn explained, so doing populist stuff was the way to win their hearts.

And if a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll is correct, then Quinn has done just that with last week's line-item veto of legislative salaries and benefits. At least, for now.

30 Jun 2013

Gubernatorial Candidate's Spending Pushes His Numbers

By Rich Miller

Back in early February, not a single person picked Bruce Rauner's name in a Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll surveying likely Republican primary voters.

Other polls taken since then have shown retired financier Rauner in the low single digits in his bid for governor.

But Rauner has been dumping money into Downstate TV, the Fox News Channel in the Chicago area, and Chicago and Downstate radio. As a result, he appears to be moving some numbers.

A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken June 20 of 1,310 likely Republican gubernatorial primary voters found Rauner at 12 percent. The poll was taken almost two weeks after Rauner began running ads.

23 Jun 2013

Bill Daley Targets Madigans with Poll Leaks

By Rich Miller

I think a lot of people believed that if Bill Daley ran for governor, his campaign would be as bland and vanilla as his public persona has been over the decades.

Instead, he's turned into the most fiery candidate in the race so far. Daley is even "out-angering" wealthy Republican financier Bruce Rauner, who has tried to position himself as the "We're not gonna take it any more!" choice for 2014.

Daley has attacked Governor Pat Quinn's pathetic leadership, slammed the General Assembly for its ridiculous inaction, and made it clear that he's not afraid to go on the attack against the Madigan family by releasing unflattering poll results earlier this week that showed the House speaker could harm his daughter's potential gubernatorial bid.

Daley has been selectively releasing responses to a poll taken in April for his campaign - back when few thought he would actually run. All of the responses released so far have dealt with Attorney General Lisa Madigan and her father, House Speaker Michael Madigan. None of the numbers released so far has showed any actual Daley strength.

16 Jun 2013

Lopsided Democratic Race for Guv Tightens

By Rich Miller

In a sign that some truly awful publicity for her father may be hurting her possible gubernatorial bid, Attorney General Lisa Madigan has seen her poll numbers plunge in the past several months. And Bill Daley has considerably improved his standing since he announced his candidacy.

Back in January, a We Ask America poll had Madigan leading Governor Pat Quinn in a Democratic primary by 25 points, 51 percent to 26 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey taken in November had Madigan stomping Quinn by 44 points, 64-20.

But the newest Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, taken June 13, had Madigan's lead over Quinn at 11 points, 44-33. That's still a big lead, but not nearly the cremation many were expecting.

09 Jun 2013

Lack of African-American Support Dooms Gay-Marriage Bill

By Rich Miller

There's more than enough blame to go around regarding the failure of the gay-marriage bill during the final days of the General Assembly's spring session, which ended May 31.

Governor Pat Quinn knew that African-American House members were reluctant to support the bill, mainly because of pressure from their churches. So, why did he pick a nasty fight with the Black Caucus over Medicaid? Quinn was offering projects to Republican legislators to entice them to flip, but he couldn't find a few million Medicaid dollars to help poor people get wheelchairs and preventive dental care? That late-session fight over Medicaid spending was counterproductive. Instead of using the disagreement to his advantage, Quinn dug in his heels and so did the Black Caucus, which also initially refused to support a gay-rights measure several years ago after being cut out of a gaming-expansion bill.

Senate President John Cullerton said he didn't regret passing the gay-marriage bill out of his chamber in mid-February, before the House votes were lined up. Back then, the House roll call was reportedly in the 40s. (Sixty votes are needed to pass.) Usually, proponents try to wire these things so they pass both chambers quickly. Cullerton said he feared opponents would begin gearing up and believed the bill needed to be passed as quickly as possible. But passing that bill without first making sure the House was ready to deal with it energized opponents and gave them time to organize.

Pages

Subscribe & Listen to Reader Podcasts

On Stands Now

 

Tagged Content

    

Two Ways to Subscribe

1. Subscribe to free weekly e-mail content updates.

You'll get both the current official narrative challenge and What's Happenin' in the Quad Cities.
(Did you know we publish a new Real Astrology and RCR Crossword every week?) 

Subscribe!

* indicates required

2. Get 12 monthly issues mailed first class for $48

Get 12 issues mailed monthly for $48 per year.

Get the printed Reader edition mailed to you (or anyone you want) first-class for 12 months for $48.
$24 goes to postage and handling, $24 goes to keeping the doors open!

Click this link to Subscribe now.