"It's so quiet," sighed Pippin in The Fellowship of the Rings.

"It's the deep breath before the plunge," counseled Gandalf.

"I don't want to be in a battle," said Pippin, "but waiting on the edge of one I can't escape is even worse."

That exchange pretty well sums up the current climate in the General Assembly. It's very quiet. Too quiet. Everybody knows that big, tough decisions are both looming and inevitable, and they're all tiptoeing around Springfield, peering over their shoulders and whispering about the coming fight that deep down, they are starting to realize, they cannot fully escape. The bloodiest of all battles is just around the corner, and they know it.

I've been pretty rough on Secretary of State Jesse White lately. I have no regrets about it, and I believe I had good reason to put the onus on him to correct his mistake of appointing state Representative Derrick Smith to the Illinois House last year. Smith, of course, was arrested in March on federal bribery charges.

White requested a sit-down last week, and I was more than happy to meet with him. I've always respected the guy, but I told him in no uncertain terms that I stood by everything I wrote and will continue to hold him responsible for resolving this mess.

White initially blamed his alderman and protégé Walter Burnett for Smith's appointment. Burnett, White said, didn't fully inform him about Smith's background problems. (Smith was fired from his city job, and the Sun-Times reported a few years ago that he'd been accused of malfeasance.) That's no excuse, however. White is the top dog, and the blame rests with him. He agreed.

Appointed state Representative Derrick Smith (D-Chicago) hasn't been in the House very long, but few would've ever picked him as a future legislative star. He stumbles badly during debates, isn't well informed on the issues, and has obviously had a lot of trouble getting his arms around his new job.

In other words, he probably won't be missed.

Smith was arrested last week on federal bribery charges. The feds say a campaign worker told them that Smith was anxious about fundraising problems and was willing to trade favors for checks. After being told a day-care-center owner was willing to pony up big bucks in exchange for an official letter requesting a $50,000 state grant, Smith allegedly pounced on the opportunity.

Last year, the House was able to control the Statehouse budget process by releasing low-ball state-revenue estimates early on and then vowing to stick to those numbers no matter what.

The Senate Democrats wanted to spend more money but were eventually stymied by the House's revenue estimates. There was just no way around the problem. Some Senate Democrats thought about forcing the spring session into overtime, but that would've been stupid because then the budget would've required a three-fifths majority to pass - and that would've given the Republicans a seat at the table. And the Republicans wouldn't want to spend more money.

It's too early to tell, but this year might be different. Last week, the House kicked off the budget process by locking in the chamber's new revenue estimates. The estimates are $221 million below the governor's revenue projections and $271 million below the projections released by the General Assembly's Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability.