The Democrats got a bit of good news along with a load of bad news in a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll. The news is particularly problematic for anyone who can be credibly connected to House Speaker Michael Madigan, whom voters overwhelming blame for the ongoing state-budget stalemate.

The poll of 1,231 registered Illinois voters found presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump by 12 points, 47-35. Another 7 percent said they were voting for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, and 12 percent were undecided.

The poll was taken June 5 and 6, before Illinois U.S. Senator Mark Kirk and other Republicans withdrew their support from Trump. It had a margin of error of 3 percent, and 39 percent of the responses came from mobile-phone users.

John Kerry won this state by 12 points in 2004 – the last time an Illinoisan wasn’t leading a presidential ticket – so Clinton’s numbers align with recent history. Clinton is leading 67-17 in Chicago and 47-35 in suburban Cook County.

Trump, however, is ahead 42-38 in the suburban collar counties and leads by 10 points, 45-35, among Downstate voters – the location of some potentially hot state-legislative battles. So it’s not all good news for the Dems. Then again, Democratic presidential candidates haven’t fared well in some Downstate regions in a long time, but Democratic legislators have mostly managed to hold on to their seats.

Libertarian candidate Johnson does his best with folks who voted in the last three Republican primaries, scoring 11 percent – which means that Trump is doing relatively poorly among those who strongly identify as Republicans.

But as Governor Bruce Rauner’s people have been warning for months, the Democratic House speaker is getting the blame by a huge margin for the yearlong government impasse.

Poll participants were told: “The Illinois General Assembly has once again adjourned its spring session without a budget agreement – an ongoing situation that some feel is caused by a clash between Governor Bruce Rauner and Speaker Mike Madigan.” They were then asked to assign blame.

The poll found that voters blame Madigan by a 21-point margin, 55-34, with 9 percent blaming and 2 percent saying they were still undecided.

The polling company conducted a similar survey late last month for another client. Based on that earlier polling, firm principal Gregg Durham said there “seems to be a widening gap putting the speaker in the lead in the budget blame game.”

Durham noted that while Rauner enjoys “relative solidarity among Republican voters, Speaker Madigan’s numbers are comparatively soft among Democrats.” For example, 28 percent of people who have taken Democratic ballots in at least two of the last three cycles say Madigan is chiefly to blame. Independents blamed Madigan 49-39.

Durham also said there were significantly more people who said they were undecided in the earlier poll. So positions appear to be hardening.

Chicago is the only region that blames Rauner over Madigan for the impasse, 52-35, while suburban Cook County blames Madigan by a 54-36 margin.

Downstate voters predictably blame Madigan over Rauner 59-29, with 11 percent blaming both and 1 percent saying they’re undecided. Just about everybody has an opinion on this one, and that opinion is not good for the Democrats.

Madigan does worst among collar-county voters, where 64 percent blame the speaker and just 27 percent blame the governor, with 2 percent undecided and 8 percent blaming both men.

Just 29 percent of men blame Rauner, but 62 percent blame Madigan. Another 7 percent say both are to blame.

Fifty percent of female voters point their finger at Madigan, as opposed to 38 percent who blame Rauner. Ten percent of women blame both.

The results reportedly confirm similar polling taken by the House Democrats, and they definitely confirm polls taken by the Republicans.

So why would Madigan continue down this path? The answer, according to multiple sources, is that the speaker is convinced it’s up to him to stop Rauner in his tracks, even if that means taking some losses.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.

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