Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan rose to give his customary year-end speech after the chamber had concluded its legislative business last week and pointed his finger right at Governor Bruce Rauner.
For months, Madigan has noted that every time Rauner sets aside his “personal agenda,” the two men have been able to reach a compromise on a spending proposal. What Madigan refers to as a personal agenda is actually Rauner’s Turnaround Agenda, a package of pro-business and anti-union measures that the legislature’s Democratic majority has so far refused to approve. And Rauner won’t agree to a full budget deal until that happens, which is why Illinois went a year without a budget.
Madigan told the chamber that the stopgap budget deal and K-12 education spending plan passed last week represented the “seventh time” spending proposals independent of the governor’s agenda have been approved in the past 18 months.
Yet there was one component of last week’s deal that was a victory for Rauner. Madigan last week put votes on a bill that would give Chicago Public Schools $205 million for its pension system. However, per the agreement he made with Rauner, it will only be signed into law if the leaders can agree on a significant pension-reform bill by January. And pension reform is near the top of the governor’s “personal agenda.”
Madigan was reportedly reluctant to make that deal; he called it a “trap” during private negotiations with the governor.
He could be right about this being a trap. Barring divine intervention, Chicago Public Schools will face yet another cash crunch next June as it struggles to make its huge annual pension payment. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will probably be desperate for a deal to get access to that state cash infusion. And the unions that support Madigan are not going to love having to wage yet another pension-reform fight. Madigan will be “trapped” in the middle.
The speaker was reportedly convinced to accept the offer at the urging of Emanuel. And even then Madigan insisted on having a bipartisan roll call with a strict minimum number of Republican votes – and he stuck to that demand even though the House Republicans were short a couple of members last week.
The point is that the governor, after a year and a half of private cajoling and public bullying, finally succeeded in convincing Emanuel to put some pressure on Madigan to do a deal. And that pressure will only increase as the January deadline approaches for pension reform.
And Team Rauner is likely hoping it can use similar ideas to force Madigan to the table on other Turnaround Agenda items, such as reducing workers’ compensation costs and curbing rights for unionized employees in local governments.
Madigan could, however, use all this to his own political advantage through the summer and fall.
Rauner said last week that helping the legislative Republicans pick up seats in November would be a top priority from here on out. He correctly noted that their super-minority status meant they had little influence at the Statehouse. Rauner has said previously that if the Democrats pick up any seats this November, it would be a “disaster” for taxpayers. And he has repeatedly said that the Democrats have made it clear it will be easier for them to do a “grand bargain” if they wait until after the election.
That all adds up to a huge incentive for unions to rally behind Madigan. If they work hard and help Madigan pick up some seats, perhaps they can stave off a “grand bargain.” But if they slack off even a little and Madigan suffers a loss – no matter how slight – the grand-bargaining could commence in earnest.
If Madigan’s interest-group allies truly go all out and can build on the natural Democratic advantage of a presidential election year, and perhaps the added advantage of the Republican presidential nominee, Madigan could definitely pick up seats. The Democrats say they have polling showing this could happen.
But the Republicans claim to have polling showing they’re doing really well in numerous targeted legislative districts.
That’s one reason Republicans could justify last week’s stopgap-budget bargain, even though it’s widely expected to take lots of heat off of incumbents (and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents than Republican incumbents). At least, that’s the hope for Republicans. This has been, after all, a very bizarre year all over the place.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
