There are those who believe strongly that one side or the other is "winning" our latest and perhaps greatest Illinois Statehouse impasse.
I think it's too early to judge, and frankly I think everyone is going to end up losing here anyway.
As you know, the governor has refused to negotiate a budget until the Democrats accede to his demands to essentially neuter the power of labor unions. The Democrats won't ever sign on to his more radical proposals, including forbidding school teachers from negotiating their own salaries.
Many who think Governor Bruce Rauner is winning point to the fact that about 80 percent of the General Revenue Fund's budget is being spent under court order or signed legislation.
State-employee wages and pensions, Medicaid-reliant hospitals in Cook County, part of the state child-care program, debt service, transfers to local governments, and human-service programs tied to federal consent decrees are all being funded. In addition, Rauner signed the K-12 budget, so schools are being paid on time.
In addition, the House is expected as I write this to pass legislation appropriating about $5 billion in federal pass-through money.
So Rauner has managed to avoid wearing the jacket for any devastating consequences of a state shutdown because there hasn't really been a shutdown.
But there are plenty of crises to come.
For instance, the state's Monetary Award Program can't distribute money to 125,000 poor college students without an appropriation. As of Friday afternoon, Western Illinois University was planning to inform its students that they would have to replace that state aid with other sources of funding or out of their own pockets.
Mark Brown at the Chicago Sun-Times has been doing a great job documenting the impact of Rauner's child-care program changes, which is wreaking havoc throughout the state.
There are also serious problems with federal grants matched with state dollars. If there's no state appropriation by the end of September, the state could lose a whole lot of money in the next federal fiscal year.
And what about nursing homes? The federal Medicaid decree doesn't cover them, and neither does the "federal only" appropriations bill. But many rely heavily on Medicaid. Are we gonna see old folks kicked to the curb soon?
There's also more than $3 billion in non-federal human-service appropriations that can't be spent. We will definitely see some all too real horror stories very soon.
Then there are all the fiscal problems in Chicago. The city's media tends to give the mayor a whole lot of credence in disputes with governors, and Rahm Emanuel has been cranking up the heat on Rauner lately, so that's a major pressure point.
Not to mention that former Republican Governor Jim Edgar publicly chided Rauner the other day for not dropping his more extreme anti-union demands and focusing on the budget. That attack could give cover to pro-union Republican legislators to eventually break with Rauner.
What Rauner's been doing so far reminds me of those movies in which somebody gets chased through a house. One door is breached, so the person being chased runs into another room and locks the door. That door is broken, so he runs into another room and puts a chair in front of the door. Etc. That's kind of what Rauner has been doing with state dollars. The spending has given him breathing room to last another day.
But Rauner can't just escape through a window. He runs the government. Eventually, he could very well run out of doors to lock.
Right now, I think voters are giving the new guy the benefit of the doubt. Add those who approve of his job performance to the undecideds in the last statewide poll we've seen and you have a 57-percent majority.
That could change quickly, however, when pain starts being felt.
Rather than focus on winning or losing, I really wish the state's leaders (all of them) would start focusing on solving problems.
You want to bring down local government costs to ease the burden of a property-tax freeze? You want to help employers with workers' comp costs? You want a more equitable and fair way of drawing legislative district maps? Then find a way to do these things that both sides can live with.
The governor should stop trying to stick it to the unions, and the Democrats absolutely need to help him come up with some alternative ideas.
Forget about "winning." Try governing.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
