MONMOUTH, ILLINOIS (October 12, 2023) — The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7 was "right out of the terrorist playbook," said Monmouth College political science professor Jessica Vivian.
What happens next, she said, depends on what play Israel runs in response.
Vivian, who joined Monmouth's faculty in 2014 and holds a doctoral degree from Cornell University, has a background in the United Nations and international affairs. She said Hamas was motivated to act because things were starting to be too quiet in the Middle East.
"In a terrorist organization, the leaders have interests that aren't served by peace," said Vivian.
And peace, it could be said, was in the works.
"There's been a thawing of relations between Israel and Arab countries and between Israel and Saudi Arabia," she said.
Such thawing is not good for a terrorist organization. Hamas wants to keep attention on their cause — the plight of the Palestinians — and the world had begun to look away.
"They risk becoming irrelevant," said Vivian. "So, they go to the terrorist playbook, spoil the peace process, and provoke retaliation by horrific attacks on Israeli civilians that cannot be ignored. But if Israeli retaliation harms innocent civilians in Gaza, the Arab world becomes more sympathetic to Hamas' aims and more tolerant of Hamas' methods: 'Look here, Israel is bombing and killing children.' They want to make the other side the bully."
Vivian offered the Western nations' interpretation of that play.
"Hamas wants to force Israel's hand. Hamas claims to be acting in the interests of Palestinians, but they are willing to use innocent Gazans as their sacrificial lambs," she said.
Israel's response
That's certainly a less flattering look for Hamas, and it's Vivian's hope that Israel doesn't run the predictable play in an angry response.
"The best response would be a measured and calculated decapitation strike, avoiding civilian casualties," she said. "An all-out attack on Gaza might be satisfying in the short run, but it would be counterproductive in the long run. It's important to realize that the vast majority of Gaza's residents have nothing to do with Hamas."
The United States had exactly that type of calculated strike when a commando operation into Pakistan killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
However, said Vivian, there's a key difference this time around.
"Afghanistan (from where the May 2, 2011, raid was launched) is a wide-open country," she said. "But Gaza is very densely populated. The terrorist leader you might want to kill could be in an apartment, and there could be six children living right next door. It's a very difficult situation."
The US angle
Although Western nations, including the United States, are sympathetic to Israel, Vivian said there are still ways the issue could be divisive for Americans in what is already a polarized political climate.
"Both parties want the same thing, but Republicans might try to capitalize politically if anything goes wrong," she said. "Politically, it's a hot topic. Support for Israel is a third rail topic, something no one wants to touch."
The United States is playing the role of that friend at the bar, trying to prevent his buddy from taking a swing at the guy who's goading him into a fight. US leaders could assist in other ways, as well, supplying expertise after what Vivian and many others have called "a massive intelligence failure" in Israel."One would think we could give them intelligence for a more targeted reaction," she said. "Also, not all the Hamas leaders are in Palestine. They're in Qatar. The US could lean on Qatar, lean on Lebanon, so that Hamas does not find safe haven there."
There are other factors to consider, as well.
"Iran is trying to get nuclear weapons," said Vivian. "Israel has nuclear weapons. Russia is aligned with Iran. Iran supports both Hamas and Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia and Iran are vying for influence. There's oil in the region. There's a struggle to gain control of that center square on the chess board."
What's ahead?
Asked to look a few months into the future, Vivian said the Israel-Hamas war could break a couple different ways.
"The best case, it dies down," she said. "There could be a hostage negotiation under the radar, with some Palestinian detainees being exchanged for detainees from Israel. Worst case, Hamas engages in hostage killing, like we saw with Isis. There'd be no way, then, for Israel to respond with restraint."
