Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Can a sweep year at the Oscars also be a spread-the-wealth year at the Oscars? You wouldn't think so. Yet here I am attempting to determine the victors of the 96th Annual Academy Awards, and finding myself not only predicting the most trophies for a single film in 15 years, but guessing that nine of the 10 Best Picture nominees will also walk away with at least one prize. With apologies to Past Lives. I adore that movie, but in order for it to stand a chance, it needed more nominations than the two it got.
You don't have to be a professional prognosticator – and if such a gig exists, I would kill for that job – to know that Oppenheimer is going to be the chief beneficiary of voter love when this year's ceremony, again hosted by the reliable Jimmy Kimmel, airs on ABC on Sunday, March 10, starting at 6 p.m. CT. (I should point out that this is a whole hour earlier than usual, so if you're the sort who wants to watch the annually interminable fashion parade and listen to the annually vacuous pre-show chatter – I'm talking to you, Mom – be prepared for the advanced start time … and on Daylight Savings Day, no less!) I fully expect Christopher Nolan's heady blockbuster to stroll off with a bunch of golden tchotchkes, and assume that the ever-anxious, ratings-minded folks at ABC wouldn't mind that ultimate scenario one bit. It's been 20 years since the last critically acclaimed, billion-dollar(ish)-grossing blockbuster was favored to win Best Picture and a slew of additional awards. And although the 13-times-nominated Oppenheimer doesn't have much chance at matching or bettering The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King's record (tied with Ben-Hur and Titanic) of 11 Oscars, it's gonna clean up significantly.
As for the other half of 2023's Barbenheimer phenomenon, I'm thinking it has one victory in the bag (even if the movie loses with its Best Original Song front-runner, it's gonna win with its runner-up), and could score as many as three additional Oscars. But at present, I've got Barbie joining American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of a Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest as Best Picture contenders whose teams will have one or two reasons to smile at the post-show parties. (Here's hoping Godzilla fans wind up smiling, too.) And be primed for some serious standing ovations at the March 10 event, as a bunch of nominees have been waiting a lo-o-o-ong time for one of these things. Eight-time nominee Christopher Nolan got his first Oscar nomination 22 years ago. So did fellow eight-timer Wes Anderson. Robert Downey Jr. was a Best Actor nominee for Chaplin in 1993. Adding the possibilities of Lily Gladstone, 83-year-old Hayao Miyazaki (who received his last Oscar 21 years ago), and any number of additionally moving developments, my feet hurt just imagining how much Dolby Theatre attendees' feet are gonna hurt.
Be sure to check out my 2024 Oscars recap on March 11 to see where I invariably went right and wrong. Your admiration and mockery are always appreciated.
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
This is the category's most abjectly Done Deal since 2008's Slumdog Millionaire. I do feel obligated, however, to remind you that I've only predicted this category correctly three times over the last 10, and if the Academy catered to my prognostication, Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land, Get Out, BlackKklansman, 1917, and The Power of the Dog would all have been Best Picture champs. I was relieved that a couple of them weren't and disappointed that a few others weren't. But after Chris Nolan's A-bomb opus scored with the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards (CCA), the British Academy of Film & Television Awards (BAFTA), the Producers Guild of America, the Directors Guild of America, and even picked up the Screen Actors Guild's (SAG's) Outstanding Ensemble citation, you should definitely trust me on this one. Seriously. I think.
BEST DIRECTING
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
I'd call Nolan the night's lock-iest lock, even more so than Oppenheimer nabbing the night's biggest prize, but there is Da'Vine Joy Randolph to consider.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Given her wins with the Globes, CCA, and BAFTA (where Gladstone wasn't nominated), Emma Stone still has an excellent chance at landing her second Best Actress win in seven years. But did you register the thunderous standing ovation Gladstone received at the SAG Awards? And did you notice how enthusiastically the Poor Things star applauded her competitor the moment her name was announced? Everyone seems to be pulling for Flower Moon's female lead to become the acting branch's first indigenous Oscar winner, and her likely victory might've felt like a hollow gesture if this humble, radiant talent's performance weren't so intensely deserving.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Until Murphy walked off with the SAG Award, I was pretty certain this was Giamatti's to lose, and he's still Mr. Oppenheimer's most credible threat. No one wants to be placed in front of a steamroller, though. And if degree of difficulty still counts for anything, voters may be inclined to lean toward the Irish guy who made a buttoned-down theoretical physicist riveting, tortured, funny, and even sexy – and spoke with a flawlessly flat American accent, no less – over the beloved character actor who did his usual thing, even if he did do it flawlessly.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Have I mentioned that she's even more of a sure bet than Nolan?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
He is Gold Man.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
The Holdovers, David Hemingson
Maestro, Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
May December, Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
Past Lives, Celine Song
When the French film netted the Golden Globes' all-inclusive screenplay award over Barbie, Killers of a Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things in January, it was something of a surprise. Considering Anatomy's BAFTA win and seemingly escalating popularity (it recently swept France's César Awards and that adorable pup Messi apparently stole the show at the annual Oscar-nominees luncheon), only Triet and Harari not getting Oscars now would be considered a surprise.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction, Cord Jefferson
Barbie, Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan
Poor Things, Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer
Barring an Oppenheimer sweep that extends to this category – and something tells me Nolan will be amply awarded elsewhere – it still feels like this might be Barbie's best shot at an above-the-line Oscar. Plus, if Anatomy prevails in Original, it's tempting to also go with Gerwig and Baumbach, who, like Triet and Harari, are co-screenwriters and romantic partners. (Is it too much to hope the couples attend the ceremony as double dates?) Yet I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Barbie's insane box office and pop-culture dominance are beginning to grate on awards bodies. And while Gerwig's movie under-performed on nomination morning, American Fiction over-performed, and scored screenplay wins from the CCA and BAFTA, to boot. Jefferson's script was actually his film's only BAFTA nod, and it still won – and with “American” baked into the title! This race will be close (not that we'll ever know for sure), but I'm thinking Jefferson's searing satire emerges victorious as voters presume that Gerwig and Baumbach will be back soon, and with something a little less overtly product-driven.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
American Symphony, “It Never Went Away”
Barbie, “I'm Just Ken”
Barbie, “What Was I Made For?”
Flamin' Hot, “The Fire Inside”
Killers of the Flower Moon, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”
The last Grammy Award winner for Song of the Year that snagged the Best Original Song Oscar was Celine Dion's “My Heart Will Go On” from Titanic. I guess that may be reason enough to argue against Billie Eilish's and brother Finneas O'Connell's apparent done deal here. You have to ask yourself, though: Over the last quarter-century-plus, how many options for this dual recognition have there actually been?
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy & the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
My gut, or perhaps just my lukewarm response to The Boy & the Heron, is telling me to go with Spider-Verse. But the former title's unexpectedly robust box office, Golden Globe and BAFTA wins, and conceivable last chance to reward icon Hayao Miyazaki are making me think twice – and reminding me that there's still a third Spider-Verse waiting in the wings.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Io Capitano, Italy
Perfect Days, Japan
Society of the Snow, Spain
The Teachers' Lounge, Germany
The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom
As the only Best Picture nominee in the race, this category is a gimme. Man alive, though, how I would've loved to see the final result had the ineligible Anatomy of a Fall been included here, too.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
I'm flying completely blind here, having not yet seen any of the cited titles. I'm going with BAFTA winner 20 Days in Mariupol primarily because the doc is about the Russian invasion of Ukraine told from the perspective of Ukrainian journalists. It wouldn't be the Oscars without an impassioned political speech. And don't think for a second that those in attendance won't want to give a figurative black eye to Vladimir Putin, if only for a couple minutes, from the safety of the Dolby Theatre.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I honestly don't see a single impediment to Hoyte van Hoytema's Oppenheimer triumph. He most likely would've won for Nolan's Dunkirk, too, had he not been in the race against Blade Runner 2049's Sir Roger Deakins, who was on his 14th nomination without a win. Deakins nabbed another Oscar a mere two years later. Time now for van Hoytema to secure his first.
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Unless voters get way-adventurous and opt for Anatomy of a Fall, this is another category that feels like Oppenheimer's to lose. If nominee Jennifer Lame does win, expect her speech to come with a hat-tip to Flower Moon's Thelma Schoonmaker, the 84-year-old ne plus ultra of living film editors.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
This marks the first time in 20 years that the inclusions for Production and Costume Design have lined up five-for-five, and Academy Awards history suggests that if voters opt for a particular movie in one category, they'll also cite it in the other. So which film nabs the two-fer? I think we can agree that Napoleon is out, and Flower Moon doesn't seem likely, and while some might reflexively check Oppenheimer all the way down the ballot, it's hard to get much mileage from the design principle “intentionally drab.” Sticking with my theory that oh-so-serious-minded Academy members might say “Enough, already” to the Barbie phenomenon, let's go with the equally deserving Poor Things landing both, with the caveat that I won't be at all surprised if I'm wrong on both counts.
BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
Mission – Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
The Zone of Interest's BAFTA win gives me pause on this guess, and that film's exquisitely subtle sound design would certainly get my vote. But despite consistent pleading, I'm apparently still not allowed to vote. And those who do vote tend to like their winners in this category loud.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
It would be lovely acknowledgment of The Band's creative force Robbie Robertson, who passed away last August, if he were to receive a posthumous Oscar for Killers of a Flower Moon. (Also lovely acknowledgment of Scorsese, who directed The Band rock-umentary The Last Waltz two years before his first Oscar nomination for 1980's Raging Bull.) Yet a nod will have to be Robertson's reward, as Oppenheimer's Ludwig Göransson has this triumph all sewn up.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
In most years, this prize automatically goes to a Best Picture nominee. That's not an issue this year. So beyond predicting the first-ever Oscars victory for a Godzilla movie, what say we go with the title that its fans, myself very much among them, wish was a Best Picture nominee?
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
This is probably Maestro's only realistic shot at a trophy. But if it does win, given the competition of Poor Things and the Oppenheimer juggernaut, it'll likely only be by a nose.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Năi Nai & Wài Pó
I'm gonna do my damnedest to catch all of these titles before March 10. Going with the presumption that a lot of Oscars voters say the same thing to themselves every year and don't follow through, let's blindly pick The ABCs of Book Banning because … you know … it's about book banning. We hate that, right?
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White & Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Just a hunch, but I'm betting that Wes Anderson's long-overdue Oscar-night speech will be Short, too.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
I kind of hate that I saw all of this year's Animated Short nominees during their area booking at Davenport's Last Picture House, because the short I most strongly disliked – War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko – is also the one that seemed most likely to make softhearted, potentially softheaded voters check its name on their ballots. I'm perhaps stupidly going with the idea that quality will prevail … and that there may be enough voters who'll instinctively turn up their noses at any title boasting the name “Yoko” in conjunction with “John.”
